Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 22 October 2026 · 20:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), Bournemouth take on AC Milan, with Vassilis Fotias in charge. We make Bournemouth (51%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bournemouth lie 2nd, having collected 12 points after 4 matches (4W 0D 0L); AC Milan lie 28th, having collected 3 points (1W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Bournemouth have taken 1 win to AC Milan's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 3–0.
What to expect
In our view Bournemouth hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Bournemouth 1 win, 0 draws, AC Milan 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Bournemouth 0, AC Milan 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 57%, top price 1.67). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bournemouth: no absences. AC Milan will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.14 | 4.02 | 4.19 |
| Market average | 1.87 | 3.81 | 3.93 |
| Lowest odds | 1.80 | 3.58 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.72 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.81 | 2.73 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 AC Milan, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 2nd (12 points), AC Milan 28th (3 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–0.
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, AC Milan 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: injuries and missing players
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
AC Milan
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
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Bournemouth vs AC Milan: last matches of both teams
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth to win (2.14); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Our estimate gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 24%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: Vassilis Fotias.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. AC Milan: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.75) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.1%), then 2–1 (9.7%) and 1–0 (9.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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