Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Inter, 31 October 2026 · 19:45 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), with Marco Guida officiating. The odds point to Inter (47%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
AC Milan vs Inter: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. AC Milan lie 5th, having collected 21 points after 10 matches (6W 3D 1L); Inter lie 2nd, having collected 25 points (8W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, AC Milan average 2.0 goals for and 1.2 against, compared with 2.8 for and 1.1 against for Inter.
- Form in the competition. AC Milan: 5W 3D 1L, goals 18–11; Inter: 8W 1D 0L, goals 25–10.
- Head to head. In 44 previous meetings, AC Milan have taken 14 wins to Inter's 19 wins, plus 11 draws; the goal tally stands at 50–61.
What to expect
In our view Inter hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 44; AC Milan 14 wins, 11 draws, Inter 19 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: AC Milan 18–11, Inter 25–10.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: AC Milan 5, Inter 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 58%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, R. Loftus-Cheek, A. Saelemaekers, F. Tomori. Inter will be without: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, J. Stones. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
AC Milan vs Inter: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.70 | 3.80 | 2.11 |
| Market average | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2.04 |
| Lowest odds | 3.11 | 3.31 | 1.98 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.74 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.11 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 2.76 | 34.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.24 | 41.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 16:59. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: AC Milan 1–1 Inter, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AC Milan 5th (21 points), Inter 2nd (25 points).
- Form in the competition: AC Milan 5W 3D 1L (18:11), Inter 8W 1D 0L (25:10).
- H2H: 44 matches: AC Milan 14W 11D 19L, goals 50–61.
- Absences: AC Milan 5, Inter 5.
Who will win AC Milan vs Inter?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
AC Milan vs Inter: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
AC Milan vs Inter: injuries and missing players
AC Milan
- S. Chukwuezehip injury · will miss the match
- M. Gabbiathigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Loftus-Cheekthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Saelemaekersankle injury · will miss the match
- F. Tomorimuscle injury · will miss the match
Inter
- C. Jonesthigh injury · will miss the match
- Luis Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezthigh injury · will miss the match
- B. Pavardthigh injury · will miss the match
- J. Stonesmuscle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
AC Milan
Home and away
AC Milan vs Inter: last matches of both teams
AC Milan
Inter
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AC MilanWLWWDInterLWWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for AC Milan vs Inter?
Over 2.5 goals (1.83); Inter to win (2.11).
Who will win AC Milan vs Inter?
Our estimate gives AC Milan a 27% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Inter 47%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 19:45, venue San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Marco Guida.
Who will be missing?
AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, R. Loftus-Cheek, A. Saelemaekers, F. Tomori. Inter: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, J. Stones. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.83) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.5%), then 0–1 (9.5%) and 1–2 (9.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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