Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Bologna, 28 October 2026 · 17:30 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), with Juan Luca Sacchi officiating. The odds point to AC Milan (55%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Bologna win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Bologna lose by 1. Loses: Bologna lose by 2 or more.
AC Milan vs Bologna: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. AC Milan lie 5th, having collected 21 points after 10 matches (6W 3D 1L); Bologna lie 9th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, AC Milan average 2.0 goals for and 0.9 against, compared with 1.0 for and 1.3 against for Bologna.
- Form in the competition. AC Milan: 5W 3D 0L, goals 16–7; Bologna: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–10.
- Head to head. In 32 previous meetings, AC Milan have taken 21 wins to Bologna's 4 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 60–29.
What to expect
In our view AC Milan hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (13.5%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.84), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 47%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 32; AC Milan 21 wins, 7 draws, Bologna 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.8 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: AC Milan 16–7, Bologna 8–10.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
- Unavailable: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 51%, top price 1.87). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Bologna will be without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
AC Milan vs Bologna: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.78 | 3.81 | 5.33 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 3.67 | 5.10 |
| Lowest odds | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.33 | 71.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 3.60 | 26.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 16:28. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: AC Milan 1–0 Bologna, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AC Milan 5th (21 points), Bologna 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: AC Milan 5W 3D 0L (16:7), Bologna 2W 2D 4L (8:10).
- H2H: 32 matches: AC Milan 21W 7D 4L, goals 60–29.
- Absences: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
AC Milan vs Bologna: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
AC Milan vs Bologna: injuries and missing players
AC Milan
- S. Chukwuezehip injury · will miss the match
- M. Gabbiathigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Gilaankle injury · will miss the match
- R. Loftus-Cheekthigh injury · will miss the match
- D. Moreirathigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Rabiotcalf injury · will miss the match
- A. Saelemaekersankle injury · will miss the match
Bologna
- E. Holmthigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Orsolinithigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Piccolihamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. EnemAchilles tendon injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
AC Milan
Home and away
AC Milan vs Bologna: last matches of both teams
AC Milan
Bologna
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AC MilanWLWWDBolognaWWWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Bologna +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Under 2.5 goals (1.84).
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our estimate gives AC Milan a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bologna 19%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 17:30, venue San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi.
Who will be missing?
AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Bologna: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.12) and under 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.84).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (13.5%), then 1–1 (11.5%) and 2–0 (11.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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