Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Inter vs Fiorentina, 25 October 2026 · 11:30 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), with Maurizio Mariani officiating. The odds point to Inter (71%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Inter vs Fiorentina: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Inter lie 2nd, having collected 25 points after 10 matches (8W 1D 1L); Fiorentina lie 16th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Inter average 3.0 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 1.1 for and 2.4 against for Fiorentina.
- Form in the competition. Inter: 6W 1D 0L, goals 21–9; Fiorentina: 1W 1D 5L, goals 8–17.
- Head to head. In 36 previous meetings, Inter have taken 21 wins to Fiorentina's 8 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 67–50.
What to expect
In our view Inter hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.67), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 36; Inter 21 wins, 7 draws, Fiorentina 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Inter 21–9, Fiorentina 8–17.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
- Unavailable: Inter 6, Fiorentina 4.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Inter: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, M. Spinacce, J. Stones. Fiorentina will be without: A. Atta, F. Parisi, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Inter vs Fiorentina: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.40 | 5.87 | 8.57 |
| Market average | 1.35 | 5.50 | 7.90 |
| Lowest odds | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.89 | 32.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 47.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.18 | 42.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 08:58. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Inter 2–0 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Inter 2nd (25 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Inter 6W 1D 0L (21:9), Fiorentina 1W 1D 5L (8:17).
- H2H: 36 matches: Inter 21W 7D 8L, goals 67–50.
- Absences: Inter 6, Fiorentina 4.
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Inter vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Inter vs Fiorentina: injuries and missing players
Inter
- C. Jonesthigh injury · will miss the match
- Luis Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezthigh injury · will miss the match
- B. Pavardthigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Spinaccenot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Stonesinjury · will miss the match
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Inter
Home and away
Inter vs Fiorentina: last matches of both teams
Inter
Fiorentina
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
InterLWWWWFiorentinaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate gives Inter a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Fiorentina 12%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 11:30, venue San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Maurizio Mariani.
Who will be missing?
Inter: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, M. Spinacce, J. Stones. Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42) and under 2.5 goals at 33% (odds 3.04).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (9.9%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 3–0 (8.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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