Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Old Trafford (Manchester), Manchester United take on Bournemouth, with J. Gillett in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Manchester United lie 17th, having collected 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L); Bournemouth lie 8th, having collected 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Manchester United average 1.4 goals for and 1.4 against, compared with 1.3 for and 1.9 against for Bournemouth.
- Form in the competition. Manchester United: 1W 4D 2L, goals 10–10; Bournemouth: 1W 3D 3L, goals 9–13.
- Head to head. In 20 previous meetings, Manchester United have taken 10 wins to Bournemouth's 5 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 39–29.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Bournemouth, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.62), which we give a 58% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 53%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 20; Manchester United 10 wins, 5 draws, Bournemouth 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.4 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Manchester United 10–10, Bournemouth 9–13.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
- Unavailable: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.86). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth will be without: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.49 | 3.55 | 3.08 |
| Market average | 2.41 | 3.45 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.80 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:09. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Manchester United 1–1 Bournemouth, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester United 17th (7 points), Bournemouth 8th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester United 1W 4D 2L (10:10), Bournemouth 1W 3D 3L (9:13).
- H2H: 20 matches: Manchester United 10W 5D 5L, goals 39–29.
- Absences: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: injuries and missing players
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. J. Kroupifoot injury · doubtful
- V. Milosavljevicabsence · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Manchester United
Home and away
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: last matches of both teams
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Manchester UnitedLLDDDBournemouthWWWLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Over 2.5 goals (1.86); Manchester United or draw (1X) (1.45).
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our estimate gives Manchester United a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bournemouth 33%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 14:00, venue Old Trafford, Manchester. Referee: J. Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.86) and under 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.1%), then 1–0 (9.3%) and 2–1 (8.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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