Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Leeds, 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with M. Salisbury officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bournemouth lie 8th, having collected 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L); Leeds lie 12th, having collected 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bournemouth average 1.5 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 1.1 for and 0.8 against for Leeds.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–13; Leeds: 2W 5D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. In 9 previous meetings, Bournemouth have taken 3 wins to Leeds's 4 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 19–16.
What to expect
In our view Bournemouth hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.2%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.70), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 9; Bournemouth 3 wins, 2 draws, Leeds 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bournemouth 12–13, Leeds 9–6.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.95). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds will be without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.17 | 3.56 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.38 | 3.51 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.08 | 3.01 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.08 | 44.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 09:22. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 8th (12 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 2W 3D 3L (12:13), Leeds 2W 5D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 9 matches: Bournemouth 3W 2D 4L, goals 19–16.
- Absences: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bournemouth vs Leeds: injuries and missing players
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Jamesback injury · doubtful
- A. Stachfoot injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bournemouth
Home and away
Bournemouth vs Leeds: last matches of both teams
Bournemouth
Leeds
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWWWLLLeedsLDDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Over 2.5 goals (1.95); Bournemouth or draw (1X) (1.32).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Our estimate gives Bournemouth a 45% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Leeds 27%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: M. Salisbury.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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