Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Manchester United, 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Stamford Bridge (London), with P. Bankes officiating. The odds point to Chelsea (48%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Chelsea lie 4th, having collected 16 points after 9 matches (5W 1D 3L); Manchester United lie 17th, having collected 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Chelsea average 2.1 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 1.3 for and 1.6 against for Manchester United.
- Form in the competition. Chelsea: 4W 1D 3L, goals 17–15; Manchester United: 1W 4D 3L, goals 10–13.
- Head to head. In 41 previous meetings, Chelsea have taken 14 wins to Manchester United's 13 wins, plus 14 draws; the goal tally stands at 53–55.
What to expect
In our view Chelsea hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.55), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 62%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 41; Chelsea 14 wins, 14 draws, Manchester United 13 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Chelsea 17–15, Manchester United 10–13.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United will be without: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.05 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.60 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.46 | 2.35 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.52 | 2.44 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 09:22. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Chelsea 4th (16 points), Manchester United 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Chelsea 4W 1D 3L (17:15), Manchester United 1W 4D 3L (10:13).
- H2H: 41 matches: Chelsea 14W 14D 13L, goals 53–55.
- Absences: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Chelsea vs Manchester United: injuries and missing players
Chelsea
- A. Anselminoinjury · will miss the match
- J. Gittensankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Hatoinjury · will miss the match
- R. Jamesknee injury · will miss the match
- Joao Pedrothigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Lacroixmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Martinezabsence · will miss the match
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Chelsea
Home and away
Chelsea vs Manchester United: last matches of both teams
Chelsea
Manchester United
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ChelseaWLWWLManchester UnitedLLDDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Draw or Manchester United (X2) (2.00); Both teams to score (1.55).
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our estimate gives Chelsea a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Manchester United 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Stamford Bridge, London. Referee: P. Bankes.
Who will be missing?
Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.46).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 62% (odds 1.55).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.5%), then 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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