Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Everton vs Chelsea, 17 October 2026 · 12:30 at Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool), with P. Tierney officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Everton win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Everton lose.
Everton vs Chelsea: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Everton lie 5th, having collected 16 points after 10 matches (4W 4D 2L); Chelsea lie 4th, having collected 16 points (5W 1D 3L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.53), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 58%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
- Unavailable: Everton 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.55). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Everton: no absences. Chelsea will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Everton vs Chelsea: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.10 | 3.84 | 2.40 |
| Market average | 2.98 | 3.66 | 2.30 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.18 | 79.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.65 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.26 | 42.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.66 | 2.55 | 36.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.52 | 61.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.39 | 38.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 09:43. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Everton 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Everton 5th (16 points), Chelsea 4th (16 points).
- Absences: Everton 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Everton vs Chelsea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Everton vs Chelsea: injuries and missing players
Everton
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Everton
Home and away
Everton vs Chelsea: last matches of both teams
Everton
Chelsea
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Under 3.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our estimate gives Everton a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Chelsea 42%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Referee: P. Tierney.
Who will be missing?
Everton: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.70) and under 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.55).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 1–2 (8.9%) and 0–1 (8.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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