Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Genoa vs AC Milan (Serie A, 8 November 2026, 14:00): Genoa +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.86. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81. The bookmakers' odds give Genoa 21%, the draw 27% and AC Milan 52%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Wins: Genoa win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Genoa lose by 1. Loses: Genoa lose by 2 or more.
Genoa vs AC Milan preview and prediction
Genoa sit 11th in Serie A with 13 points from 10 matches, while AC Milan are fifth on 21, eight points clear of them. Those figures are from this competition only, so they tell us about league form and nothing more. On the pitch this season Milan have scored 21 and conceded 12, while Genoa have scored 10 and conceded 14. That is the gap we are betting around on Sunday.
The key facts
- Likely result: Genoa 0–1 AC Milan, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Genoa 11th (13 points), AC Milan 5th (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Genoa 4W 1D 5L (10:14), AC Milan 6W 3D 1L (21:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: Genoa 5W 7D 19L, goals 26–44.
- Absences: Genoa 1, AC Milan 0.
Genoa's home form against Milan's recent run
Genoa have been better over their last five than their league table suggests. Their last five matches, in all competitions, brought four wins and one defeat, with goals 7:4. The defeat came at Roma, and the most recent result was a 2-1 win at Lecce.
Milan's last five tell a messier story. They have won three and lost two, with goals 10:10. The two defeats came away at Bournemouth and at home to Bologna, where they conceded four. Their last outing was a 3-1 win over Inter at home. Still, a side that concedes as often as Milan have in their last five is never fully safe, and that is where our interest in Genoa begins.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Genoa
Home and away
Genoa vs AC Milan: last matches of both teams
Genoa
AC Milan
Meetings that favour the visitors
History leans heavily towards Milan. In 31 meetings Milan have won 19, Genoa have won five and seven have ended level. The goals figure is 44 for Milan and 26 for Genoa. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1-2 AC Milan, and the one before that, on 5 May 2025, went the same way.
The head-to-head is not all one way, though. The draw on 8 January 2026 finished 1-1, and the goalless draw on 15 December 2024 shows Genoa can keep Milan out. We would not dismiss the history, but we would not treat it as destiny either.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Head to head
All matchesTeam news and who is missing
Genoa have one absence to report: L. Venturino is out. No absences have been reported for AC Milan. For a side that wants to be hard to break down, having a full squad available is a clear advantage for Milan, and it is one more reason we are not expecting a comfortable afternoon for the hosts.
Genoa vs AC Milan: injuries and missing players
Genoa
- L. Venturinoabsence · will miss the match
AC Milan
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
GenoaWWWLWAC MilanWLWWDWhat the prices say about the favourite
The bookmakers have Milan as the strongest side here. Their chance of a win is 52 per cent at best odds of 1.85, with a draw at 27 per cent and a Genoa win at 21 per cent. The expected goals are 1 for Genoa and 2 for Milan, about three in total. The most likely exact scores are 0-1, 1-1 and 0-2. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 6.4 per cent, which is reasonable for this kind of market.
The market is clearly backing Milan to win, and it is hard to argue with that on the table alone. What the handicap prices offer is a way to take the price on Genoa's chances without needing them to beat Milan.
Our Genoa vs AC Milan betting tip: Genoa +0.75
Genoa +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.86, chance 53%. Half the stake goes on Genoa +0.5 and half on Genoa +1. At +0.5 the bet wins unless Genoa lose by 1 or more. At +1 the bet wins unless Genoa lose by 2 or more, and a defeat by exactly 1 returns the stake.
On the likeliest scores, the bet settles like this: a 0-1 defeat loses half the stake, a 1-1 draw wins, a 0-2 defeat loses, a 1-2 defeat loses half the stake, a 0-0 draw wins and a 1-0 home win wins.
We like this because Genoa won four of their last five, and they lost only one of them. At home this season they have won three, drawn one and lost two, which is a respectable base for a side that is 11th. The market gives this line 53 per cent at best odds of 1.86, and we think that is about right. Milan are the better team on the numbers, but a bet that returns half the stake after a one-goal defeat is a bet we can live with.
Genoa vs AC Milan: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Second tip for a quieter game
Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.81, chance 54%. On the likeliest scores this bet wins on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and loses only on 1-2.
Our case rests on Genoa's recent matches. Only two of their last five have produced more than 2.5 goals, and Genoa kept a clean sheet in two of them. The market gives the under 54 per cent at best odds of 1.81. We accept that the bookmakers' expected total of about three goals pulls the other way, and that is the main risk here. Still, the under is the price we trust more than the over.
Genoa vs AC Milan: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.84 | 3.72 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.56 | 3.51 | 1.82 |
| Lowest odds | 3.90 | 3.15 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.35 | 69.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.10 | 45.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.75 | 54.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.90 | 3.70 | 25.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 04:55. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
Other bets we would consider
If you want to back something else alongside the two tips, we would look first at the draw-or-Genoa market. Genoa or draw (1X) at odds 2.06 has a chance of 48 per cent, and it fits comfortably with our main tip. We also like Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, which carries a chance of 75 per cent. For a bigger price with a lower chance, Genoa +1.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.43 is worth a small stake, since it has a chance of 67 per cent and still pays out on a one-goal defeat.
Final word before the 14:00 kick-off
Milan should win this, and the bookmakers say they probably will. We are not going to fight that view head on. Instead we are backing Genoa to keep the game close enough for a handicap to pay, and we expect the goals to come in limited numbers. The match is at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on 8 November 2026 at 14:00, and we will be watching whether Genoa's recent wins were a sign of something real or just a short spell.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 2.5 goals (1.81).
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our estimate gives Genoa a 21% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AC Milan 52%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 8 November 2026 at 14:00, venue Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. Referee: Davide Massa.
Who will be missing?
Genoa: L. Venturino. AC Milan: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18) and under 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–1 (13.4%), then 1–1 (12.0%) and 0–2 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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