Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 1 November 2026 · 17:00 at Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce), Lecce take on Genoa, with Matteo Marchetti in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Genoa win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Genoa lose.
Lecce vs Genoa: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lecce lie 14th, having collected 9 points after 10 matches (3W 0D 7L); Genoa lie 11th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lecce average 1.1 goals for and 2.1 against, compared with 0.9 for and 1.4 against for Genoa.
- Form in the competition. Lecce: 3W 0D 6L, goals 10–19; Genoa: 3W 1D 5L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, Lecce have taken 2 wins to Genoa's 8 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 15–26.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (13.2%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.69), which we give a 58% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 42%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; Lecce 2 wins, 5 draws, Genoa 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lecce 10–19, Genoa 8–13.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
- Unavailable: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 51%, top price 1.95). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa will be without: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lecce vs Genoa: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.37 | 3.11 | 2.58 |
| Market average | 3.19 | 3.00 | 2.46 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.29 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.63 | 58.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.15 | 22.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.84 | 50.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 16:38. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lecce 1–1 Genoa, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lecce 14th (9 points), Genoa 11th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lecce 3W 0D 6L (10:19), Genoa 3W 1D 5L (8:13).
- H2H: 15 matches: Lecce 2W 5D 8L, goals 15–26.
- Absences: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lecce vs Genoa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lecce vs Genoa: injuries and missing players
Lecce
- M. Berishathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Coulibalythigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Gasparred card · will miss the match
- W. Geubbelsmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Ilicthigh injury · will miss the match
- S. Pierottiankle injury · will miss the match
Genoa
- E. Havelankle injury · will miss the match
- L. Venturinoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. E. Ellertssonankle injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lecce
Home and away
Lecce vs Genoa: last matches of both teams
Lecce
Genoa
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LecceLLLWLGenoaWWWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lecce vs Genoa?
Genoa +0 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Under 2.5 goals (1.69).
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our estimate gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Genoa 39%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 17:00, venue Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. Referee: Matteo Marchetti.
Who will be missing?
Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.44) and under 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.69).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 2.00).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (13.2%), then 0–1 (12.5%) and 1–0 (10.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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