Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 15:45 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam), Sparta Rotterdam take on Ajax, with Danny Makkelie in charge. We make Ajax (66%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Ajax win by 2 or more. Half lost (half the stake back): Ajax win by 1. Loses: a draw, Ajax lose.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam lie 11th, having collected 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L); Ajax lie 2nd, having collected 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sparta Rotterdam average 1.8 goals for and 2.4 against, compared with 3.0 for and 1.3 against for Ajax.
- Form in the competition. Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 4L, goals 16–22; Ajax: 5W 3D 1L, goals 27–12.
- Head to head. In 19 previous meetings, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 0 wins to Ajax's 16 wins, plus 3 draws; the goal tally stands at 16–49.
What to expect
In our view Ajax hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.4%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 71%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 19; Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, 3 draws, Ajax 16 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.4 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sparta Rotterdam 16–22, Ajax 27–12.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
- Unavailable: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Ajax will be without: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 6.30 | 5.42 | 1.48 |
| Market average | 6.01 | 5.08 | 1.44 |
| Lowest odds | 5.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.52 | 36.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 12:59. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 4L (16:22), Ajax 5W 3D 1L (27:12).
- H2H: 19 matches: Sparta Rotterdam 0W 3D 16L, goals 16–49.
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: injuries and missing players
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
- D. Blindback injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: last matches of both teams
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Sparta RotterdamWLWDLAjaxWWWDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Ajax -1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our estimate gives Sparta Rotterdam a 16% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ajax 66%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 15:45, venue Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Danny Makkelie.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 71% (odds 1.36) and under 2.5 goals at 29% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.4%), then 0–2 (8.2%) and 1–3 (7.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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