Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 18 October 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen), Groningen take on Ajax, with Dennis Higler in charge. We make Ajax (52%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Groningen win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Groningen lose by 1. Loses: Groningen lose by 2 or more.
Groningen vs Ajax: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Groningen lie 8th, having collected 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L); Ajax lie 2nd, having collected 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
What to expect
In our view Ajax hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.96), which we give a 50% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 68%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 70%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
- Unavailable: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.93). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Groningen: no absences. Ajax will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Groningen vs Ajax: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.10 | 4.37 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 3.80 | 4.17 | 1.81 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.07 | 30.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 67.9% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 18/10/26, 13:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Groningen 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Absences: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Groningen vs Ajax: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Groningen vs Ajax: injuries and missing players
Groningen
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Groningen vs Ajax: last matches of both teams
Groningen
Ajax
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.96).
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
Our estimate gives Groningen a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ajax 52%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 18 October 2026 at 15:45, venue Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Dennis Higler.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: no absences. Ajax: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% (odds 1.36) and under 2.5 goals at 30% (odds 3.30).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.2%), then 1–1 (8.7%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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