Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen welcome Sparta Rotterdam on 1 November 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen), and the referee is Martijn Vos. Groningen (54%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Sparta Rotterdam win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Sparta Rotterdam lose by 1. Loses: Sparta Rotterdam lose by 2 or more.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Groningen lie 8th, having collected 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L); Sparta Rotterdam lie 11th, having collected 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Groningen average 2.4 goals for and 2.1 against, compared with 1.7 for and 2.4 against for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Form in the competition. Groningen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 24–21; Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 5L, goals 17–24.
- Head to head. In 18 previous meetings, Groningen have taken 5 wins to Sparta Rotterdam's 10 wins, plus 3 draws; the goal tally stands at 24–33.
What to expect
In our view Groningen hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 66%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 18; Groningen 5 wins, 3 draws, Sparta Rotterdam 10 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Groningen 24–21, Sparta Rotterdam 17–24.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
- Unavailable: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, top price 1.79). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam will be without: S. Mito. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.80 | 4.38 | 4.29 |
| Market average | 1.74 | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.68 | 3.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.42 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.76 | 33.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.64 | 35.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 13:02. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Groningen 4W 3D 3L (24:21), Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 5L (17:24).
- H2H: 18 matches: Groningen 5W 3D 10L, goals 24–33.
- Absences: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: injuries and missing players
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: last matches of both teams
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
GroningenLDLWWSparta RotterdamWLWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Over 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our estimate gives Groningen a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sparta Rotterdam 23%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 15:45, venue Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Martijn Vos.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.45) and under 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 2.89).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.45).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.6%), then 1–1 (9.3%) and 2–0 (7.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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