Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II, 17 October 2026 · 20:00 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam), with Serdar Gözübüyük officiating. The odds point to Sparta Rotterdam (61%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Willem II win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Willem II lose by 1. Loses: Willem II lose by 2 or more.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam lie 11th, having collected 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L); Willem II lie 18th, having collected 3 points (0W 3D 9L).
What to expect
In our view Sparta Rotterdam hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Sparta Rotterdam 0, Willem II 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. Willem II will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.61 | 4.62 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.55 | 4.41 | 5.23 |
| Lowest odds | 1.52 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.68 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.20 | 42.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.32 | 39.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Willem II, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Willem II 18th (3 points).
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 0, Willem II 0.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: injuries and missing players
Sparta Rotterdam
- No reported absences
Willem II
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: last matches of both teams
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Willem II +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.73); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our estimate gives Sparta Rotterdam a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Willem II 18%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. Willem II: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.68).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 2–0 (9.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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