Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax welcome Atalanta on 22 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), and the referee is Antonio Nobre, Portugal. Ajax (46%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Ajax vs Atalanta: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Ajax lie 11th, having collected 6 points after 3 matches (2W 0D 1L); Atalanta lie 16th, having collected 4 points (1W 1D 1L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 67% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 67%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
- Unavailable: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.84). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Ajax: no absences. Atalanta will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Ajax vs Atalanta: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.21 | 4.03 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.82 | 3.14 |
| Lowest odds | 1.98 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.82 | 33.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.94 | 2.83 | 32.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Ajax 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 11th (6 points), Atalanta 16th (4 points).
- Absences: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Ajax vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Ajax vs Atalanta: injuries and missing players
Ajax
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 3-0-0 | 11:4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby AIF | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2-0-1 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1-1-1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Ajax vs Atalanta: last matches of both teams
Ajax
Atalanta
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Ajax vs Atalanta?
Under 3.5 goals (1.84); Ajax to win (2.21).
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our estimate gives Ajax a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atalanta 30%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Antonio Nobre, Portugal.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: no absences. Atalanta: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.45) and under 2.5 goals at 33% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 67% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.5%), then 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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