Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atalanta welcome Frosinone on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo), and the referee is Livio Marinelli. Atalanta (51%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Frosinone win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Frosinone lose by 1. Loses: Frosinone lose by 2 or more.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Atalanta lie 13th, having collected 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L); Frosinone lie 6th, having collected 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Atalanta average 1.4 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 1.9 for and 1.3 against for Frosinone.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 3W 0D 4L, goals 10–11; Frosinone: 4W 1D 2L, goals 13–9.
- Head to head. In 7 previous meetings, Atalanta have taken 4 wins to Frosinone's 1 win, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 21–6.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (8.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Frosinone, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 71%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 72%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 7; Atalanta 4 wins, 2 draws, Frosinone 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Atalanta 10–11, Frosinone 13–9.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
- Unavailable: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 48%, top price 2.06). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Atalanta: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Frosinone will be without: F. Grillitsch. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.93 | 4.30 | 3.85 |
| Market average | 1.89 | 4.15 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.07 | 87.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.34 | 1.31 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.33 | 28.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 1.82 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.35 | 1.32 | 70.7% |
| BTTS – no | 3.40 | 3.19 | 29.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 12:54. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Atalanta 2–1 Frosinone, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 13th (11 points), Frosinone 6th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 3W 0D 4L (10:11), Frosinone 4W 1D 2L (13:9).
- H2H: 7 matches: Atalanta 4W 2D 1L, goals 21–6.
- Absences: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Atalanta vs Frosinone: injuries and missing players
Atalanta
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scalvinithigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Frosinone
- F. Grillitschthigh injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Atalanta vs Frosinone: last matches of both teams
Atalanta
Frosinone
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AtalantaLDDLWFrosinoneWWDWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Frosinone +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Over 3.5 goals (1.89).
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our estimate gives Atalanta a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Frosinone 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 14:00, venue New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Livio Marinelli.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Frosinone: F. Grillitsch. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 72% (odds 1.34) and under 2.5 goals at 28% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 71% (odds 1.35).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (8.9%), then 1–1 (8.2%) and 2–2 (6.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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