Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon, 26 October 2026 · 19:30 at Parc des Princes (Paris), with Jérôme Brisard officiating. The odds point to Paris Saint Germain (72%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Paris Saint Germain lie 1st, having collected 20 points after 9 matches (6W 2D 1L); Lyon lie 3rd, having collected 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 1.9 for and 0.7 against for Lyon.
- Form in the competition. Paris Saint Germain: 4W 2D 1L, goals 14–9; Lyon: 4W 2D 1L, goals 13–5.
- Head to head. In 42 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have taken 28 wins to Lyon's 8 wins, plus 6 draws; the goal tally stands at 90–43.
What to expect
In our view Paris Saint Germain hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.62), which we give a 59% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 70%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 42; Paris Saint Germain 28 wins, 6 draws, Lyon 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Paris Saint Germain 14–9, Lyon 13–5.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
- Unavailable: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.97). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon will be without: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.36 | 6.09 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 5.75 | 8.36 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.29 | 3.13 | 30.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.90 | 50.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 26/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Paris Saint Germain 1st (20 points), Lyon 3rd (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Paris Saint Germain 4W 2D 1L (14:9), Lyon 4W 2D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 42 matches: Paris Saint Germain 28W 6D 8L, goals 90–43.
- Absences: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: injuries and missing players
Paris Saint Germain
- O. Dembelethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Kvaratskheliaknee injury · will miss the match
- Marquinhosthigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Mendesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Longoniinjury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- K. Nakamurared card · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Tagliaficomuscle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Paris Saint Germain
Home and away
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: last matches of both teams
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Paris Saint GermainWWWWWLyonWLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Lyon +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Both teams to score (1.62).
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our estimate gives Paris Saint Germain a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Lyon 11%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 26 October 2026 at 19:30, venue Parc des Princes, Paris. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% (odds 1.37) and under 2.5 goals at 30% (odds 3.29).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.2%), then 2–0 (9.2%) and 3–1 (8.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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