Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Sociedad welcome Lyon on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Anoeta Stadium (San Sebastián), and the referee is Anastasios Papapetrou. Real Sociedad (60%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Real Sociedad lie 20th, having collected 5 points after 4 matches (1W 2D 1L); Lyon lie 13th, having collected 7 points (2W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Real Sociedad average 2.7 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 1.7 for and 2.0 against for Lyon.
- Form in the competition. Real Sociedad: 1W 1D 1L, goals 8–3; Lyon: 2W 0D 1L, goals 5–6.
- Head to head. In 2 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have taken 2 wins to Lyon's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 4–0.
What to expect
In our view Real Sociedad hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 2; Real Sociedad 2 wins, 0 draws, Lyon 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Real Sociedad 8–3, Lyon 5–6.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan. Lyon will be without: S. Kango, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, T. Morton. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.85 | 4.61 | 5.55 |
| Market average | 1.60 | 4.38 | 5.15 |
| Lowest odds | 1.51 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.61 | 36.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.29 | 2.22 | 43.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.37 | 39.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 16:17. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Real Sociedad 2–1 Lyon, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Real Sociedad 20th (5 points), Lyon 13th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Real Sociedad 1W 1D 1L (8:3), Lyon 2W 0D 1L (5:6).
- H2H: 2 matches: Real Sociedad 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–0.
- Absences: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: injuries and missing players
Real Sociedad
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Beitiaankle injury · doubtful
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Mortongroin injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Real Sociedad
Home and away
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: last matches of both teams
Real Sociedad
Lyon
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Real SociedadDWDLLyonDLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Real Sociedad to win (1.85); Over 2.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our estimate gives Real Sociedad a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lyon 19%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 17:45, venue Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián. Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou.
Who will be missing?
Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan. Lyon: S. Kango, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, T. Morton. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 2–0 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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