Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Athletic Club welcome Real Sociedad on 1 November 2026 · 20:00 at San Mamés Stadium (Bilbao), and the referee is Alejandro Hernández. Athletic Club (47%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Athletic Club win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Athletic Club lose.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Athletic Club lie 7th, having collected 15 points after 10 matches (4W 3D 3L); Real Sociedad lie 5th, having collected 19 points (6W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Athletic Club average 1.3 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 1.9 for and 1.8 against for Real Sociedad.
- Form in the competition. Athletic Club: 3W 3D 3L, goals 12–9; Real Sociedad: 6W 1D 3L, goals 19–18.
- Head to head. In 38 previous meetings, Athletic Club have taken 14 wins to Real Sociedad's 15 wins, plus 9 draws; the goal tally stands at 41–44.
What to expect
In our view Athletic Club hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Real Sociedad, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.70), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 53%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 38; Athletic Club 14 wins, 9 draws, Real Sociedad 15 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Athletic Club 12–9, Real Sociedad 19–18.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
- Unavailable: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.84). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad will be without: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.07 | 3.76 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.33 | 3.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.79 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.05 | 2.92 | 32.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Athletic Club 7th (15 points), Real Sociedad 5th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Athletic Club 3W 3D 3L (12:9), Real Sociedad 6W 1D 3L (19:18).
- H2H: 38 matches: Athletic Club 14W 9D 15L, goals 41–44.
- Absences: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: injuries and missing players
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluzknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Guruzetaknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Ruiz de Galarretahamstring injury · will miss the match
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitiaankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Athletic Club
Home and away
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: last matches of both teams
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Athletic ClubWWLDDReal SociedadLWWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club +0 (Asian handicap) (1.54); Both teams to score (1.70).
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our estimate gives Athletic Club a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real Sociedad 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 20:00, venue San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Referee: Alejandro Hernández.
Who will be missing?
Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.84) and under 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.