Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Osasuna vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 7 November 2026, 17:30): Total cards over 4.5 at odds of 1.70. The bookmakers' odds give Osasuna 26%, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 46%.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club preview and prediction
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Over 4.5 Cards
Our preferred Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao bet is Over 4.5 cards at 1.70. El Sadar on a Saturday evening is one of the most hostile away trips in Spanish football, and when a Navarre‑Basque rivalry arrives with both teams scrapping for position, the duels tend to boil over into bookings.
Athletic arrive in Pamplona on three straight wins in all competitions, including a 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad in the Basque derby – the kind of result that fills a team with confidence but also guarantees a feverish reception from a home crowd that sees the Lions as the enemy.
Osasuna have lost three of their last five and slipped to 15th, so Jagoba Arrasate's side will treat this as a fight, literally and figuratively. Ante Budimir, eight goals this season, leads a physical front line that thrives on exactly the kind of confrontational game El Sadar demands.
The last meeting between these sides, in April 2026, was decided by a single goal, and two of the last three have finished level – fine margins between teams that know each other intimately. Fine margins breed late tackles and stoppages. Over 4.5 cards at 1.70 is the play.
The key facts
- Likely result: Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Osasuna 15th (11 points), Athletic Club 7th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Osasuna 3W 2D 6L (11:22), Athletic Club 4W 3D 3L (14:10).
- H2H: 28 matches: Osasuna 6W 7D 15L, goals 25–41.
- Absences: Osasuna 0, Athletic Club 0.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: Date, Kick-Off Time
Osasuna host Athletic Bilbao on Saturday, 7 November 2026, in the twelfth round of La Liga. Kick-off at Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona is 17:30 local time.
Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Betting Odds and Best Markets
The models make Athletic slight favourites – their win probability is rated around 41 % against Osasuna's 32 % – but the result market in a rivalry game at El Sadar is a coin flip we are happy to avoid. The value is in the discipline markets: a hostile crowd, a desperate home side and an in‑form visitor is the classic recipe for a heavy card count.
Budimir is the obvious anytime scorer candidate for the hosts, while Nico Williams and Inaki Williams both start for an Athletic attack that has scored freely during its winning run. Our preference, though, is Over 4.5 cards at 1.70.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.75 | 3.59 | 2.18 |
| Market average | 3.63 | 3.43 | 2.06 |
| Lowest odds | 3.45 | 3.17 | 1.99 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.35 | 69.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.11 | 45.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.75 | 54.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.72 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.86 | 50.1% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.87 | 49.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 06:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
In What Form Are Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao Coming Into the Match?
Osasuna have three wins, two draws and six defeats from 11 league games, leaving them 15th on 11 points. They have lost three of their last five, including a 2-1 defeat to Deportivo last time out, though a 6-0 cup win over Atlético Calatayud at the end of October showed what they can do to weaker opposition.
Athletic are seventh with 15 points from four wins, three draws and three defeats, and their trajectory is steeply upward: a 4-0 league win over Getafe, a 6-1 cup success over Prat and the derby triumph over Real Sociedad make it three straight victories under Edin Terzic. A European place is the clear ambition.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Osasuna
Home and away
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: last matches of both teams
Osasuna
Athletic Club
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: Key Pre-Match Statistics
Osasuna have won only 22 of 99 previous meetings with Athletic in all competitions – a rivalry the Lions have historically dominated, which only adds edge to the home side's aggression at El Sadar.
Two of the last three meetings between the clubs have finished level, and the other was decided 1‑0. Tight, fractious contests between familiar opponents are precisely where card counts climb, and Osasuna's home games this season have followed that physical pattern as they scrap for every point near the bottom.
Head to head
All matchesOsasuna vs Athletic Bilbao H2H History
Athletic hold the commanding position in the historical record, with Osasuna winning just 22 of the 99 meetings across all competitions. The most recent clash, in April 2026, ended in a 1‑0 defeat for Arrasate's men.
Recent editions have been tight: two of the last three finished level, and Athletic have won only one of the last four. Expect another evening where nothing is given and every challenge is contested.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Team News: Key Players
Osasuna have no reported absences. Ruben Garcia is pushing for a start in place of Jonathan Dubasin, while Budimir – eight goals in 11 appearances this term – again operates through the middle.
Athletic have no reported absences. Robert Navarro is expected to start, with both Williams brothers alongside him. Final line‑ups are confirmed an hour before kick‑off.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: injuries and missing players
Osasuna
- No reported absences
Athletic Club
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
OsasunaLLWLDAthletic ClubWWLDDReturns calculator
Questions and answers
When is Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?
The match takes place on Saturday, 7 November 2026, with kick‑off at 17:30 CET at Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona.
What is our Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao prediction?
We back Over 4.5 cards at 1.70 – a fierce regional rivalry at one of Spain's most hostile grounds, with the home side fighting relegation trouble and the visitors chasing Europe.
Who are the key players?
Osasuna's Ante Budimir has eight goals this season and embodies the hosts' physical approach, while Athletic's Williams brothers provide the pace that provokes desperate challenges.
Which tip do we give for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Total cards over 4.5 (1.70)
Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our estimate gives Osasuna a 26% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 17:30, venue Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.17) and under 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 50% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.5%), then 0–1 (11.9%) and 1–2 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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