Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: prediction, odds and betting tip – 7 November 2026, Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes preview and prediction

Paris Saint‑Germain sit top of Ligue 1 with 20 points from nine games, while Estac Troyes languish in 16th place with eight points. The gap between first and sixteenth is 12 points, and the hosts have scored 21 and conceded ten, compared with Troyes’ seven for and 16 against. Paris have a home record of two wins, no draws and one loss, scoring six and conceding three at the Parc des Princes, whereas Troyes have managed one win, one draw and two defeats away, with two goals for and five against.

Form coming into the clash

Paris have been relentless, winning five straight league matches. Their last five outings produced 18 goals for and only six against, with both sides finding the net in four games and more than 2.5 goals in the same four. The sequence of those matches shows a clear attacking trend: a 2‑4 victory at Manchester City on 14 October, a 3‑1 win at Strasbourg on 17 October, a 4‑2 triumph over Barcelona at home on 20 October, a 2‑0 home win against Lyon on 26 October and a 5‑1 away demolition of Le Havre on 30 October. In each of these contests Paris scored at least two goals, and only once did they keep a clean sheet (against Lyon).
By contrast, Troyes have managed just one win in their last five, drawing once and losing three. They have scored three and let in seven, kept a clean sheet twice and failed to score in three of those games. Their recent results were a 0‑2 defeat at Angers on 19 September, a 0‑2 loss at home to Marseille on 11 October, a 1‑3 home defeat by Lens on 17 October, a 0‑0 draw away at Toulouse on 25 October and a 2‑0 home victory over Le Mans on 31 October. Troyes have failed to score in three of those five matches, underscoring their struggles in front of goal.

Head‑to‑head dominance

In the last ten meetings Paris Saint‑Germain have won nine and drawn one, never losing to Troyes. The aggregate score stands at 33‑8 in favour of the Parisians. The detailed record of those encounters is as follows:

• 7 May 2023 – Estac Troyes 1‑3 Paris Saint‑Germain
• 29 October 2022 – Paris Saint‑Germain 4‑3 Estac Troyes
• 8 May 2022 – Paris Saint‑Germain 2‑2 Estac Troyes
• 7 August 2021 – Estac Troyes 1‑2 Paris Saint‑Germain
• 3 March 2018 – Estac Troyes 0‑2 Paris Saint‑Germain
• 29 November 2017 – Paris Saint‑Germain 2‑0 Estac Troyes

The most recent meeting, on 7 May 2023, ended 3‑1 to PSG, reinforcing the pattern of decisive victories. The likelihood of a Paris win is further highlighted by the fact that PSG have won nine of the last ten meetings, while Troyes have never managed a win in that span.

Team news

No absences have been reported for either side, so we can expect both line‑ups at full strength. This means Paris can field the attacking unit that has produced 18 goals in their last five games, and Troyes will rely on the same squad that secured a 2‑0 win over Le Mans.

What the market says

Bookmakers give Paris Saint‑Germain an 83 % chance of winning (best odds 1.16), a draw 11 % (odds 10.61) and a Troyes win 6 % (odds 18.50). The expected total is about four goals, with a 55 % chance of over 3.5 goals (odds 1.79) and a 74 % chance of over 2.5 goals (odds 1.30). Both‑teams‑to‑score sits at 50 % each. The market also reflects a strong preference for Paris on the Asian handicap side: Paris -2 at odds 1.66 (59 % chance) and Paris -1.5 at odds 1.44 (67 % chance). Conversely, Troyes +2 is priced at 2.36 (41 % chance) and Troyes +1.5 at 2.93 (33 % chance). Corners markets show a slight edge to under 10.5 corners (67 % at 1.48) and over 11.5 corners (78 % at 1.23).

Our Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes betting tip: Over 3.5 goals

We back the over 3.5 goals market at 1.79 (55 % chance). Paris have produced more than 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, and the expected total is around four. The market’s valuation aligns with this outlook. The most likely exact scores, based on the settlement table, are 4‑0 (8.2 % chance), 3‑0 (10.6 % chance) and 2‑0 (10.2 % chance), all of which comfortably clear the 3.5‑goal threshold.

• How it settles: a 4‑0 result wins, 3‑1 wins, while 3‑0, 2‑0, 2‑1 and 1‑0 lose.

Second tip: PSG to win

Paris Saint‑Germain to win at 1.16 (83 % chance) is our second recommendation. They have won five straight, remain unbeaten in their last five, while Troyes have only one win in the same span. PSG sit top of the table with a home record of two wins, no draws and one loss, and they have won nine of the last ten meetings against Troyes. Their average of 2.3 goals scored per match this season, compared with Troyes’ 0.8, further underlines the disparity.

• How it settles: any of the most likely scores – 3‑0, 2‑0, 4‑0, 3‑1, 2‑1 or 1‑0 – all count as wins for PSG.

Other bets worth a look

Given the goal‑rich outlook, the over 2.5 goals market at 1.30 (74 % chance) offers value. For those preferring a handicap, Paris -1.25 at 1.30 (72 % chance) is attractive: half the stake is on –1.5 (requiring a win by two), half on –1 (a win by exactly one returns the stake). If you like a stronger cushion, Paris -1.5 at 1.44 (67 % chance) demands a win by at least two goals. The Asian handicap line of Paris -2 at 1.66 (59 % chance) is also compelling, as it only loses if PSG win by a single goal.

For a more conservative approach, the both‑teams‑to‑score “no” option at 1.95 (50 % chance) aligns with Troyes’ recent record of keeping clean sheets in two of their last five games. Corner markets also present opportunities: under 10.5 corners at 1.48 (67 % chance) and under 11.5 corners at 1.85 (57 % chance).

Final thoughts

All signs point to a high‑scoring victory for Paris Saint‑Germain. Their firepower, defensive solidity and head‑to‑head record make a win and plenty of goals the most probable outcome. Paris have averaged 2.3 goals per match while conceding just 1.1, and Troyes have struggled to find the net, averaging only 0.8 goals and conceding 1.8. The expected total of four goals, combined with a 55 % market probability for over 3.5 goals, supports the main tip, while the 83 % win probability backs the second tip. We therefore stick with the over 3.5 goals and PSG win tips, while also keeping an eye on the over 2.5 goals and the –1.25 handicap for extra value.