Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estac Troyes vs Lens, 17 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade de l'Aube (Troyes), with H. Ben El Hadj Salem officiating. The odds point to Lens (52%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Lens win. Loses: a draw, Lens lose.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Estac Troyes lie 16th, having collected 8 points after 9 matches (2W 2D 5L); Lens lie 9th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 4L).
What to expect
In our view Lens hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.51), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 57%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
- Unavailable: Estac Troyes 0, Lens 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 59%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Estac Troyes: no absences. Lens will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.26 | 3.94 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 4.10 | 3.84 | 1.84 |
| Lowest odds | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.66 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.21 | 43.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.60 | 36.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.26 | 41.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Estac Troyes 1–1 Lens, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estac Troyes 16th (8 points), Lens 9th (13 points).
- Absences: Estac Troyes 0, Lens 0.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Estac Troyes vs Lens: injuries and missing players
Estac Troyes
- No reported absences
Lens
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estac Troyes
Home and away
Estac Troyes vs Lens: last matches of both teams
Estac Troyes
Lens
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Lens -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Our estimate gives Estac Troyes a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lens 52%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Referee: H. Ben El Hadj Salem.
Who will be missing?
Estac Troyes: no absences. Lens: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.72) and under 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.30).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.8%), then 1–2 (9.8%) and 0–1 (9.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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