Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Toulouse welcome Estac Troyes on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stadium Municipal (Toulouse), and the referee is Geoffrey Kubler. Toulouse (63%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Toulouse lie 10th, having collected 13 points after 10 matches (3W 4D 3L); Estac Troyes lie 16th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Toulouse average 1.7 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 0.7 for and 2.3 against for Estac Troyes.
- Form in the competition. Toulouse: 2W 3D 2L, goals 12–11; Estac Troyes: 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–16.
- Head to head. In 12 previous meetings, Toulouse have taken 7 wins to Estac Troyes's 0 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 23–5.
What to expect
In our view Toulouse hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.61), which we give a 60% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 56%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 12; Toulouse 7 wins, 5 draws, Estac Troyes 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Toulouse 12–11, Estac Troyes 5–16.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.64). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Toulouse: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Estac Troyes will be without: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.57 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.52 | 4.47 | 6.11 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.17 | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.58 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.41 | 39.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.39 | 39.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.65 | 56.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.14 | 43.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Toulouse 2–1 Estac Troyes, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Toulouse 10th (13 points), Estac Troyes 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Toulouse 2W 3D 2L (12:11), Estac Troyes 1W 1D 5L (5:16).
- H2H: 12 matches: Toulouse 7W 5D 0L, goals 23–5.
- Absences: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: injuries and missing players
Toulouse
- M. Nifloreinjury · will miss the match
- S. Oppongcalf injury · will miss the match
Estac Troyes
- I. Bourahip injury · will miss the match
- Y. Koneknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ouzenadjiknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Titiabsence · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Toulouse
Home and away
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: last matches of both teams
Toulouse
Estac Troyes
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ToulouseWLDWDEstac TroyesWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Over 2.5 goals (1.64); Toulouse to win (1.57).
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our estimate gives Toulouse a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Estac Troyes 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:15, venue Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. Referee: Geoffrey Kubler.
Who will be missing?
Toulouse: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.49).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 56% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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