Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby, 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at The Den (London), with Anthony Backhouse officiating. The odds point to Millwall (57%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Millwall win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Millwall win by 1. Loses: a draw, Millwall lose.
Millwall vs Derby: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Millwall lie 13th, having collected 18 points after 14 matches (5W 3D 6L); Derby lie 23rd, having collected 10 points (2W 4D 9L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Millwall average 1.6 goals for and 1.7 against, compared with 0.8 for and 1.8 against for Derby.
- Form in the competition. Millwall: 4W 3D 5L, goals 19–20; Derby: 1W 4D 7L, goals 10–21.
- Head to head. In 23 previous meetings, Millwall have taken 10 wins to Derby's 6 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 25–26.
What to expect
In our view Millwall hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (11.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.85), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 52%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 23; Millwall 10 wins, 7 draws, Derby 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Millwall 19–20, Derby 10–21.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 52%, top price 1.82). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby will be without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Millwall vs Derby: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Market average | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.80 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.98 | 47.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.82 | 1.78 | 52.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.94 | 47.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 13:40. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Millwall 1–0 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Millwall 13th (18 points), Derby 23rd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Millwall 4W 3D 5L (19:20), Derby 1W 4D 7L (10:21).
- H2H: 23 matches: Millwall 10W 7D 6L, goals 25–26.
- Absences: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Millwall vs Derby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Millwall vs Derby: injuries and missing players
Millwall
- T. Arconteankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Coburnmuscle injury · will miss the match
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- D. Sandersonred card · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Millwall
Home and away
Millwall vs Derby: last matches of both teams
Millwall
Derby
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MillwallLWLDLDerbyWLLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.91); Over 2.5 goals (1.85).
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
Our estimate gives Millwall a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derby 19%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue The Den, London. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Who will be missing?
Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.85) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 52% (odds 1.82).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (11.5%), then 1–1 (10.9%) and 2–0 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.