Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby welcome Stoke City on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), and the referee is Oliver Langford, England. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Derby win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Derby lose.
Derby vs Stoke City: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Derby lie 23rd, having collected 10 points after 15 matches (2W 4D 9L); Stoke City lie 4th, having collected 26 points (8W 2D 4L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.6%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.75), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 48%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
- Unavailable: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 52%, top price 1.86). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Derby: no absences. Stoke City will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Derby vs Stoke City: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.96 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.81 | 52.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.51 | 3.33 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 53.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (10 points), Stoke City 4th (26 points).
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Derby vs Stoke City: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Derby vs Stoke City: injuries and missing players
Derby
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Stoke City: last matches of both teams
Derby
Stoke City
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.83); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our estimate gives Derby a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Stoke City 40%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 15:00, venue Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Oliver Langford, England.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.03) and under 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.6%), then 0–1 (10.5%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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