Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby welcome Norwich on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), and the referee is Sam Allison. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Derby win, a draw. Loses: Derby lose.
Derby vs Norwich: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Derby lie 23rd, having collected 10 points after 15 matches (2W 4D 9L); Norwich lie 12th, having collected 18 points (6W 0D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Derby average 0.8 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 1.8 for and 1.8 against for Norwich.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 8L, goals 11–25; Norwich: 5W 0D 8L, goals 23–24.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, Derby have taken 5 wins to Norwich's 5 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 18–23.
What to expect
In our view Norwich hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; Derby 5 wins, 5 draws, Norwich 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Derby 11–25, Norwich 23–24.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Derby 9, Norwich 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 59%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Ward. Norwich will be without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, K. McLean. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Derby vs Norwich: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.40 | 3.66 | 2.16 |
| Market average | 3.29 | 3.53 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.02 | 3.26 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.70 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.12 | 44.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.71 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.25 | 41.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Norwich, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (10 points), Norwich 12th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 8L (11:25), Norwich 5W 0D 8L (23:24).
- H2H: 15 matches: Derby 5W 5D 5L, goals 18–23.
- Absences: Derby 9, Norwich 6.
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Derby vs Norwich: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Derby vs Norwich: injuries and missing players
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Wardnot in the squad · doubtful
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
- K. McLeannot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Norwich: last matches of both teams
Derby
Norwich
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
DerbyWLLDLNorwichWWWLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Derby vs Norwich?
Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
Our estimate gives Derby a 29% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Norwich 45%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 3 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Sam Allison.
Who will be missing?
Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Ward. Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, K. McLean. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.76) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (9.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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