Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Carrow Road (Norwich), Norwich take on Watford, with Ben Speedie in charge. We make Norwich (64%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Norwich win by 2 or more. Stake back: Norwich win by 1. Loses: a draw, Norwich lose.
Norwich vs Watford: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Norwich lie 12th, having collected 18 points after 14 matches (6W 0D 8L); Watford lie 20th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Norwich average 1.7 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 0.8 for and 1.7 against for Watford.
- Form in the competition. Norwich: 4W 0D 8L, goals 20–22; Watford: 3W 2D 7L, goals 10–20.
- Head to head. In 21 previous meetings, Norwich have taken 10 wins to Watford's 11 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 37–31.
What to expect
In our view Norwich hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), which we give a 61% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 56%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 21; Norwich 10 wins, 0 draws, Watford 11 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Norwich 20–22, Watford 10–20.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.60). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Watford will be without: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Norwich vs Watford: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.52 | 4.80 | 6.68 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.52 | 6.05 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 3.92 | 4.81 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.51 | 2.39 | 39.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.36 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.12 | 43.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 09:42. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Norwich 2–1 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Norwich 12th (18 points), Watford 20th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Norwich 4W 0D 8L (20:22), Watford 3W 2D 7L (10:20).
- H2H: 21 matches: Norwich 10W 0D 11L, goals 37–31.
- Absences: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Norwich vs Watford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Norwich vs Watford: injuries and missing players
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
- M. Topicabsence · doubtful
Watford
- M. Antonionot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Coulibalyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Norwich
Home and away
Norwich vs Watford: last matches of both teams
Norwich
Watford
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
NorwichWWWLLWatfordWLLWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Norwich vs Watford?
Norwich -1 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.57).
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
Our estimate gives Norwich a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Watford 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Carrow Road, Norwich. Referee: Ben Speedie.
Who will be missing?
Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.57) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.51).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 56% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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