Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Wolves welcome Watford on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton), and the referee is Robert Madley, England. Wolves (66%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Wolves win by 2 or more. Stake back: Wolves win by 1. Loses: a draw, Wolves lose.
Wolves vs Watford: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Wolves lie 2nd, having collected 27 points after 14 matches (8W 3D 3L); Watford lie 20th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Wolves average 1.7 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 0.9 for and 1.7 against for Watford.
- Form in the competition. Wolves: 5W 3D 3L, goals 19–16; Watford: 3W 2D 6L, goals 10–19.
- Head to head. In 12 previous meetings, Wolves have taken 6 wins to Watford's 4 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 19–13.
What to expect
In our view Wolves hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (10.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 52%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 12; Wolves 6 wins, 2 draws, Watford 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Wolves 19–16, Watford 10–19.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
- Unavailable: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, top price 1.67). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Wolves: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Watford will be without: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Wolves vs Watford: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.47 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.43 | 4.63 | 6.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.17 | 79.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.61 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.51 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.78 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 1.95 | 47.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 13:58. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Wolves 2–0 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wolves 2nd (27 points), Watford 20th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Wolves 5W 3D 3L (19:16), Watford 3W 2D 6L (10:19).
- H2H: 12 matches: Wolves 6W 2D 4L, goals 19–13.
- Absences: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Wolves vs Watford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Wolves vs Watford: injuries and missing players
Wolves
- R. Gomesfoot injury · will miss the match
- R. Jimenezknee injury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- A. Armstrongback injury · doubtful
Watford
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Akomeahabsence · doubtful
- M. Antonionot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wolves
Home and away
Wolves vs Watford: last matches of both teams
Wolves
Watford
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
WolvesWWWDWWatfordWLLWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Wolves vs Watford?
Wolves -1 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
Our estimate gives Wolves a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Watford 14%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton. Referee: Robert Madley, England.
Who will be missing?
Wolves: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Watford: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.67) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 52% (odds 1.83).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (10.9%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.