Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 6 November 2026 · 20:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), Derby take on Bolton, with James Bell in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Derby win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Derby lose.
Derby vs Bolton: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Derby lie 23rd, having collected 10 points after 15 matches (2W 4D 9L); Bolton lie 17th, having collected 17 points (5W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Derby average 0.8 goals for and 2.1 against, compared with 1.4 for and 1.9 against for Bolton.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 9L, goals 11–29; Bolton: 5W 2D 7L, goals 19–26.
- Head to head. In 16 previous meetings, Derby have taken 8 wins to Bolton's 3 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 26–12.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Bolton, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 16; Derby 8 wins, 5 draws, Bolton 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.4 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Derby 11–29, Bolton 19–26.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Derby 8, Bolton 6.
Alternative tip: Derby or draw (1X)
Another angle: Derby or draw (1X) (probability 64%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, J. Ward. Bolton will be without: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, E. Toal, G. Bazunu. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Derby vs Bolton: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Market average | 2.55 | 3.42 | 2.62 |
| Lowest odds | 2.45 | 3.26 | 2.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.21 | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.72 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.73 | 34.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 59.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.28 | 40.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 6/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Bolton, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (10 points), Bolton 17th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 9L (11:29), Bolton 5W 2D 7L (19:26).
- H2H: 16 matches: Derby 8W 5D 3L, goals 26–12.
- Absences: Derby 8, Bolton 6.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Derby vs Bolton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Derby vs Bolton: injuries and missing players
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- J. Wardnot in the squad · doubtful
Bolton
- E. Erhahonthigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Hardiehamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. McAteeknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Toalnot in the squad · will miss the match
- G. Bazununot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Bolton: last matches of both teams
Derby
Bolton
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
DerbyWLLDLBoltonLWLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Derby vs Bolton?
Derby +0 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
Our estimate gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bolton 36%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 6 November 2026 at 20:00, venue Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: James Bell.
Who will be missing?
Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, J. Ward. Bolton: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, E. Toal, G. Bazunu. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.76) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.60).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.7%), then 2–1 (8.5%) and 1–0 (8.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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