Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough, 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), with Simon Hooper, England officiating. The odds point to Middlesbrough (58%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bolton lie 17th, having collected 17 points after 15 matches (5W 2D 8L); Middlesbrough lie 1st, having collected 28 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bolton average 1.4 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 2.0 for and 1.5 against for Middlesbrough.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 5L, goals 15–18; Middlesbrough: 6W 4D 1L, goals 22–16.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, Bolton have taken 1 win to Middlesbrough's 13 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 9–34.
What to expect
In our view Middlesbrough hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 65%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; Bolton 1 win, 1 draw, Middlesbrough 13 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bolton 15–18, Middlesbrough 22–16.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
- Unavailable: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 63%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough will be without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.66 |
| Market average | 4.70 | 4.38 | 1.62 |
| Lowest odds | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.66 | 35.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.13 | 44.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 23/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 17th (17 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 5L (15:18), Middlesbrough 6W 4D 1L (22:16).
- H2H: 15 matches: Bolton 1W 1D 13L, goals 9–34.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: injuries and missing players
Bolton
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Strelecinjury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Home and away
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: last matches of both teams
Bolton
Middlesbrough
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BoltonLWLLDMiddlesbroughLWWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Over 2.5 goals (1.56); Middlesbrough to win (1.66).
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our estimate gives Bolton a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Middlesbrough 58%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 23 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Simon Hooper, England.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.56) and under 2.5 goals at 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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