Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Southampton vs Bolton, 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), with Matt Donohue, England officiating. The odds point to Southampton (66%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Bolton win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Bolton lose by 1. Loses: Bolton lose by 2 or more.
Southampton vs Bolton: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Southampton lie 7th, having collected 24 points after 14 matches (8W 4D 2L); Bolton lie 17th, having collected 17 points (5W 2D 8L).
What to expect
In our view Southampton hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 66%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
- Unavailable: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Southampton: no absences. Bolton will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Southampton vs Bolton: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.48 | 5.25 | 6.62 |
| Market average | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 84.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 33.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Southampton 2–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 7th (24 points), Bolton 17th (17 points).
- Absences: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Southampton vs Bolton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Southampton vs Bolton: injuries and missing players
Southampton
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Home and away
Southampton vs Bolton: last matches of both teams
Southampton
Bolton
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Southampton vs Bolton?
Bolton +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Over 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
Our estimate gives Southampton a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bolton 15%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 15:00, venue St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Matt Donohue, England.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: no absences. Bolton: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.45) and under 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.7%), then 2–0 (9.2%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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