Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
West Ham vs Southampton, 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at London Stadium (London), with Michael Salisbury, England officiating. The odds point to West Ham (56%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: West Ham win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): West Ham win by 1. Loses: a draw, West Ham lose.
West Ham vs Southampton: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. West Ham lie 8th, having collected 23 points after 14 matches (6W 5D 3L); Southampton lie 7th, having collected 24 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, West Ham average 2.7 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 1.9 for and 0.9 against for Southampton.
- Form in the competition. West Ham: 6W 4D 1L, goals 30–12; Southampton: 6W 3D 2L, goals 21–10.
- Head to head. In 29 previous meetings, West Ham have taken 13 wins to Southampton's 8 wins, plus 8 draws; the goal tally stands at 45–31.
What to expect
In our view West Ham hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.53), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 29; West Ham 13 wins, 8 draws, Southampton 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: West Ham 30–12, Southampton 21–10.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: West Ham 1, Southampton 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 63%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for West Ham: K. Lamadrid. Southampton will be without: M. Roerslev Rasmussen, F. Downes, C. Larin. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
West Ham vs Southampton: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.75 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Market average | 1.69 | 4.14 | 4.43 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 83.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.46 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.18 | 43.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 13:58. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: West Ham 2–1 Southampton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: West Ham 8th (23 points), Southampton 7th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: West Ham 6W 4D 1L (30:12), Southampton 6W 3D 2L (21:10).
- H2H: 29 matches: West Ham 13W 8D 8L, goals 45–31.
- Absences: West Ham 1, Southampton 3.
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
West Ham vs Southampton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
West Ham vs Southampton: injuries and missing players
West Ham
- K. Lamadridinjury · will miss the match
Southampton
- M. Roerslev Rasmussenabsence · will miss the match
- F. Downesankle injury · doubtful
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
West Ham
Home and away
West Ham vs Southampton: last matches of both teams
West Ham
Southampton
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
West HamDLLWWSouthamptonDWWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for West Ham vs Southampton?
West Ham -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
Our estimate gives West Ham a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Southampton 21%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue London Stadium, London. Referee: Michael Salisbury, England.
Who will be missing?
West Ham: K. Lamadrid. Southampton: M. Roerslev Rasmussen, F. Downes, C. Larin. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.53) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.5%) and 2–0 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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