Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 3 November 2026 · 20:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham), Birmingham take on Millwall, with David Webb in charge. We make Birmingham (48%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Millwall win, a draw. Loses: Millwall lose.
Birmingham vs Millwall: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Birmingham lie 3rd, having collected 26 points after 14 matches (7W 5D 2L); Millwall lie 13th, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Birmingham average 1.8 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 1.8 for and 1.6 against for Millwall.
- Form in the competition. Birmingham: 6W 5D 2L, goals 23–13; Millwall: 5W 3D 5L, goals 23–21.
- Head to head. In 25 previous meetings, Birmingham have taken 9 wins to Millwall's 8 wins, plus 8 draws; the goal tally stands at 38–26.
What to expect
In our view Birmingham hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.67), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 25; Birmingham 9 wins, 8 draws, Millwall 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Birmingham 23–13, Millwall 23–21.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: Birmingham 5, Millwall 7.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.80). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Birmingham: M. Leonard, K. Lund, Paik Seung-Ho, J. Beadle, D. Fry. Millwall will be without: C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, T. Arconte, M. Luongo. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Birmingham vs Millwall: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.02 | 3.72 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.95 | 3.57 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 1.76 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.01 | 2.83 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.16 | 43.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Birmingham 1–1 Millwall, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Birmingham 3rd (26 points), Millwall 13th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Birmingham 6W 5D 2L (23:13), Millwall 5W 3D 5L (23:21).
- H2H: 25 matches: Birmingham 9W 8D 8L, goals 38–26.
- Absences: Birmingham 5, Millwall 7.
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Birmingham vs Millwall: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Birmingham vs Millwall: injuries and missing players
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- K. Lundnot in the squad · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- J. Beadlenot in the squad · doubtful
- D. Frynot in the squad · doubtful
Millwall
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- J. Metcalfeabsence · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Arconteankle injury · doubtful
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Birmingham
Home and away
Birmingham vs Millwall: last matches of both teams
Birmingham
Millwall
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BirminghamWWLWWMillwallLWLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Millwall +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our estimate gives Birmingham a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Millwall 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 3 November 2026 at 20:00, venue St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Referee: David Webb.
Who will be missing?
Birmingham: M. Leonard, K. Lund, Paik Seung-Ho, J. Beadle, D. Fry. Millwall: C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, T. Arconte, M. Luongo. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.80) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.5%), then 1–0 (10.0%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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