Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Birmingham, 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln), with Lewis Smith officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Lincoln win, a draw. Loses: Lincoln lose.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lincoln lie 19th, having collected 15 points after 14 matches (4W 3D 7L); Birmingham lie 3rd, having collected 26 points (7W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lincoln average 1.1 goals for and 1.7 against, compared with 1.7 for and 1.0 against for Birmingham.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 4W 3D 5L, goals 13–20; Birmingham: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In 4 previous meetings, Lincoln have taken 0 wins to Birmingham's 4 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 3–9.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.4%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 49%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 4; Lincoln 0 wins, 0 draws, Birmingham 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lincoln 13–20, Birmingham 20–12.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
- Unavailable: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Birmingham will be without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.47 | 3.51 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.28 | 3.38 | 2.14 |
| Lowest odds | 2.95 | 2.99 | 2.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.92 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.87 | 50.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 3.25 | 28.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 09:42. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 19th (15 points), Birmingham 3rd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 4W 3D 5L (13:20), Birmingham 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 4 matches: Lincoln 0W 0D 4L, goals 3–9.
- Absences: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lincoln vs Birmingham: injuries and missing players
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- A. Priskeabsence · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 | Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Home and away
Lincoln vs Birmingham: last matches of both teams
Lincoln
Birmingham
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LincolnLLWDLBirminghamWWLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Lincoln +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our estimate gives Lincoln a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Birmingham 44%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Lewis Smith.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.01) and under 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.91).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.4%), then 0–1 (10.8%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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