Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Celta Vigo welcome Alavés on 18 October 2026 · 15:15 at Municipal de Balaídos (Vigo), and the referee is José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Celta Vigo win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Celta Vigo lose.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Celta Vigo lie 11th, having collected 12 points after 11 matches (2W 6D 3L); Alavés lie 9th, having collected 13 points (3W 4D 5L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (13.9%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 46%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 39%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 39%.
- Unavailable: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.61). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Celta Vigo: no absences. Alavés will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.37 | 3.24 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.27 | 3.15 | 3.47 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.48 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.55 | 61.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.25 | 4.89 | 19.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.05 | 2.04 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.75 | 1.71 | 54.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 18/10/26, 13:33. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Celta Vigo 1–0 Alavés, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Celta Vigo 11th (12 points), Alavés 9th (13 points).
- Absences: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: injuries and missing players
Celta Vigo
- No reported absences
Alavés
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Celta Vigo
Home and away
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: last matches of both teams
Celta Vigo
Alavés
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Celta Vigo -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.99); Over 1.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our estimate gives Celta Vigo a 42% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Alavés 28%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 18 October 2026 at 15:15, venue Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Celta Vigo: no absences. Alavés: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.55) and under 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.61).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 46% (odds 2.05).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (13.9%), then 1–1 (13.2%) and 0–0 (11.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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