Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga, 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mendizorroza (Victoria-Gasteiz), with Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain officiating. The odds point to Alavés (59%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Alavés vs Málaga: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Alavés lie 9th, having collected 13 points after 12 matches (3W 4D 5L); Málaga lie 20th, having collected 5 points (0W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Alavés average 1.4 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 0.7 for and 2.0 against for Málaga.
- Form in the competition. Alavés: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–10; Málaga: 0W 4D 5L, goals 6–18.
- Head to head. In 7 previous meetings, Alavés have taken 4 wins to Málaga's 1 win, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 10–5.
What to expect
In our view Alavés hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (14.0%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score: no (odds 1.80), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 46%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 46%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 7; Alavés 4 wins, 2 draws, Málaga 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.1 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Alavés 13–10, Málaga 6–18.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
- Unavailable: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.86). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga will be without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Alavés vs Málaga: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.69 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.63 | 3.81 | 5.96 |
| Lowest odds | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.74 | 53.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 23/10/26, 18:08. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Alavés 1–0 Málaga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alavés 9th (13 points), Málaga 20th (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Alavés 3W 2D 4L (13:10), Málaga 0W 4D 5L (6:18).
- H2H: 7 matches: Alavés 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Absences: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Alavés vs Málaga: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Alavés vs Málaga: injuries and missing players
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
Málaga
- J. Cruzmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Lobeteknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Martinezfoot injury · will miss the match
- J. Munozcalf injury · will miss the match
- D. Murilloknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ochoaknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Alavés
Home and away
Alavés vs Málaga: last matches of both teams
Alavés
Málaga
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AlavésDLDLLMálagaLDLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Alavés vs Málaga?
Under 2.5 goals (1.86); Alavés to win (1.69).
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
Our estimate gives Alavés a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Málaga 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 23 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz. Referee: Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.10) and under 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 46% (odds 2.10).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (14.0%), then 2–0 (11.9%) and 1–1 (11.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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