Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Benevento vs Avellino (Serie B, 7 November 2026, 18:30): Benevento -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 2.07. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.75. The bookmakers' odds give Benevento 46%, the draw 28% and Avellino 26%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Benevento win. Loses: a draw, Benevento lose.
Benevento vs Avellino preview and prediction
Benevento and Avellino meet at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito on 7 November 2026 at 18:30, in Serie B Matchweek 11. The numbers point to a narrow home edge and a game that may well produce a goal for each side. The bookmakers give Benevento 51% to win, a draw 26% and Avellino 23%, and the expected goals come out at Benevento 2, Avellino 1, about 3 in total. The likeliest exact scores are 1-1 and 1-0 at 11.9% each, with 2-1 next at 9.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Benevento 1–1 Avellino, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Benevento 6th (15 points), Avellino 5th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Benevento 4W 3D 3L (14:10), Avellino 4W 3D 3L (15:10).
- H2H: 6 matches: Benevento 1W 2D 3L, goals 6–8.
- Absences: Benevento 0, Avellino 0.
Where the goals are likely to come from
Both sides sit level on 15 points in this competition, Benevento sixth and Avellino fifth, and the season figures look alike at first glance. Each has won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3. Avellino have scored a little more, 15 goals to 14, and both concede 1.0 per match. The real difference sits in the venues. Benevento have been a different side at home, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat and a goal record of 10:7. Avellino's away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 4 scored and 5 conceded. That is the sort of split that makes a home price look sensible.
Who will win Benevento vs Avellino?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Attack against defence: who breaks the deadlock
Benevento have scored 10 goals in their 6 home matches in this competition, and the expected goals of 2 for the hosts back that up. We like the idea of them finding the first goal, but we are not convinced they will run away with it. Avellino's 1.5 goals per match in this competition is the best attacking figure in this group of numbers, and their defence has been no worse than Benevento's, conceding 1.0 per match. So the expected total of about 3 goals does not come from one side being open and the other being loose. It comes from two sides who both get into the box.
Form guides that tell different stories
In all competitions, Benevento's last five have brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 8 scored and 5 conceded. Avellino's last five read 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat as well, but with 8 scored and 4 conceded. The two records look almost identical, which is why we are reluctant to lean hard on form alone. Avellino's most recent results include a 2-0 win over Pisa and a 4-1 win over Sampdoria, while Benevento's latest include a 2-0 defeat at Cremonese. These figures come from all competitions, so they do not match the league table, but they show both sides arriving in reasonable shape.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 11 | 8-3-0 | 25:13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Ascoli | 11 | 5-5-1 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Benevento
Home and away
Meetings that favour the visitors
The head to head is the one part of this match that clearly leans away from Benevento. In the last six meetings, Benevento have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Avellino took the most recent meeting, a 2-1 win on 30 March 2025, and also won the one before it at the Vigorito's opponents' ground in April 2024. That is a history we cannot ignore, though six games is a small sample and the matches were played in different situations.
No absences on either side
Neither club has reported an absence, so the team news does nothing to change the picture. Both selections should be close to full strength, and the pre-match lineups will be the only real surprise left.
Benevento vs Avellino: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.07 | 3.47 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.35 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.90 | 3.01 | 3.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.91 | 49.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.87 | 50.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 3.23 | 29.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.02 | 46.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 00:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.6%.
Our Benevento vs Avellino betting tip: Benevento -0.5
We back Benevento -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 2.07, with a chance of 47%. At -0.5 Benevento must win by 1 or more, so a draw or a defeat loses. We like it for three reasons. Benevento have lost only 1 of their last 5 in all competitions. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in this league. And the market gives them 47% at the best odds of 2.07, which is almost exactly what our reading of the numbers suggests. We are not saying the win is comfortable, only that it is the most reasonable bet on the page.
How the main tip settles on the likeliest scores (home-away): 1-1 loses; 1-0 wins; 2-1 wins; 2-0 wins; 0-1 loses; 0-0 loses.
Benevento vs Avellino: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Our second tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.80, with a chance of 53%. Benevento have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5, Avellino in only 1 of theirs, and both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 matches of Avellino. The expected total of about 3 goals fits a match where both sides find the net. The market gives it 53% at the best odds of 1.80. The risk is obvious: a single clean sheet by either side loses it, and the 1-0 scorelines near the top of the list are exactly where it dies.
How the second tip settles on the likeliest scores (home-away): 1-1 wins; 1-0 loses; 2-1 wins; 2-0 loses; 0-1 loses; 0-0 loses.
Benevento vs Avellino: last matches of both teams
Benevento
Avellino
Head to head
All matchesAlternatives worth a look
If you want to keep the stake on Benevento but reduce the risk, the cover is available. We would look at these:
- Benevento or draw (1X) at odds 1.25, with a chance of 77%.
- Benevento +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23, with a chance of 77%. At +0.5 the bet wins unless Benevento lose by 1 or more.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a chance of 73%.
Benevento vs Avellino: injuries and missing players
Benevento
- No reported absences
Avellino
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BeneventoLDWDWAvellinoWDLDWOur likeliest score: 1-1
Our pick for the final score is 1-1, the joint most likely exact score at 11.9%, level with 1-0. It reflects the two sides finding the net against each other while the home edge in the table keeps the match from becoming a shootout. It is also the scoreline that wins our second tip and loses our main one, so it is an honest reminder of how these two bets pull against each other.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Benevento vs Avellino?
Benevento -0.5 (Asian handicap) (2.07); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Benevento vs Avellino?
Our estimate gives Benevento a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Avellino 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 18:30, venue Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento. Referee: Maurizio Mariani.
Who will be missing?
Benevento: no absences. Avellino: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 2.00) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.90).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.0%), then 1–0 (11.0%) and 2–1 (9.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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