Pisa vs Südtirol: prediction, odds and betting tip – 7 November 2026, Serie B

Pisa vs Südtirol preview and prediction

Will Pisa convert their home edge into a convincing victory, or will Südtirol hold the gap to just one goal? That is the debate we are weighing up before Serie B Matchweek 11, when Pisa welcome Südtirol on 7 November 2026 at 14:00 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.

Are Pisa's home numbers really a step up?

Pisa are eighth in the table with 15 points after 10 games, a record of four victories, three draws and three defeats. They have scored 18 and conceded 15. At home the figures are less flattering: two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and ten conceded. Südtirol occupy 10th place with 14 points, built on three wins and five draws. Away from home, they have taken one win and one draw from four trips, losing twice, and have scored five while conceding seven. Every number here relates to Serie B only, so cup ties and other competitions play no part in this comparison.

The per-match numbers make the case clearer. Pisa average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, while Südtirol record 1.1 scored and 1.0 conceded. Pisa are the more potent side, yet their defence is also more exposed, and that imbalance is why we hold back on a straight win bet.

Five games each, and different shapes

Across their previous five outings in every competition, Pisa collected two victories, two draws and a single setback, netting 10 times while letting in seven. Their 3-0 triumph away to Vicenza Virtus and their 3-1 home success against Cremonese illustrate their potential when everything works, whereas the 3-3 stalemate with Palermo highlights the more volatile side of their home form. The most recent fixture, a 2-0 loss at Avellino on 1 November, was the sole defeat during that stretch.

Südtirol are a tougher one to call. Across their previous five matches in every competition they have recorded no victories, collecting three draws and two losses, while netting twice and shipping seven. They went scoreless in three of those five, among them the 0-0 home stalemate against Ascoli. The 3-0 defeat away at Juve Stabia and the 2-0 reverse at Padova concern us more than the draws, since both came on the road.

Six meetings that never settled it

Recent meetings between these sides have been evenly balanced. Across the last six encounters, Pisa have two wins and two draws, Südtirol have two wins, and both teams have scored 10 goals. The most recent match ended 3-3 on 9 May 2025, after a 2-2 draw on 5 May 2024. Pisa beat Südtirol 2-1 away on 19 October 2024 and again 2-1 away in November 2023, while Südtirol won 1-0 at Pisa in February 2023 and 2-1 at home in September 2022. Nothing in this history points clearly to either side, so no bet should be based on it.

Any absences, and what the prices say

Neither side has reported any injuries or suspensions, so the starting eleven should match what fans expect when the whistle blows. Bookmakers see Pisa as the strong favourites with a 59% chance of victory (top price 1.62), while a draw is priced at 23% (best odds 4.20) and Südtirol are given 18% to win, with their best quote standing at 5.75. The bookmaker overround on the 1X2 market sits at 7.9%.

The handicap lines paint a clearer picture. Pisa -1 is priced at 48% (best odds 2.05), Pisa -0.75 at 55% (best odds 1.80), and Südtirol +1 at 52% (best odds 1.82). Bookmakers expect roughly 3 goals in total, with Pisa scoring about 2 and Südtirol about 1. Those numbers point to a Pisa win, though not one that runs away on the scoreboard.

Which bet do we actually like?

We back Pisa -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.80, chance 55% as our top selection. Money goes on two lines of equal size: one half on Pisa -1, the other on Pisa -0.5. The -1 half needs a margin of two goals or more, while a one-goal margin gives that half its money back. The -0.5 half is won by any margin of one goal or more. Looking at the most probable outcomes, a 1-0 Pisa victory means half the stake wins and half is returned, a 2-0 cashes the full bet, a 1-1 draw loses, a 2-1 means half the stake wins and half is returned, and both 3-0 and 3-1 win.

Our case rests on four points. Across every competition, Pisa have dropped just one of their last five, whereas Südtirol have claimed no wins in theirs. The table also places Pisa a step higher, 15 points to 14. Pisa's home form of two victories in five looks unremarkable, yet it still beats anything Südtirol have managed away in this competition. Finally, the odds imply 55% for Pisa at a best price of 1.80, which we consider reasonable for a team holding an advantage without a wide gap. Backing Pisa to win outright at 1.62 would return less for what is probably the same outcome.

Our second tip: Over 2.5 goals

Our number two pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.82, chance 54%. Pisa have cleared 2.5 goals in three of their last five outings across all competitions, and an expected total near three goals lands right on the threshold. This wins on 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 and loses on 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. It does not fit neatly with the handicap: a 2-1 Pisa win cashes the goals bet completely, yet the handicap stake gets back just half, so we rate the two as separate views.

Other bets we would look at

• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27 (chance 76%). Low payout, yet it wins whenever a match produces two or more goals, which matches the expected total.
• Pisa +0 (Asian handicap) priced at 1.23 (77% chance). Victory pays out, a stalemate hands the stake back, and a loss forfeits it, which makes this the low-risk route to backing the hosts.
• Südtirol +2 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 77%). It wins unless Südtirol lose by three or more, and a defeat by exactly two returns the stake.

Where we land on this one

Our read is that Pisa should collect the three points. Backing them with the -0.75 handicap at 1.80 suits that view best. A win by two or more goals pays out in full, while a win by exactly one goal wins half the stake and returns the other half. We have no interest in Südtirol at these prices, and the draw at 4.20 doesn't interest us either. Both a 1-0 and a 1-1 are fully plausible. In a 1-0, half the handicap wager wins and half comes back. In a 1-1, you lose it.