Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 14:00 at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino), Avellino take on Padova, with Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Avellino vs Padova: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Avellino lie 5th, having collected 15 points after 10 matches (4W 3D 3L); Padova lie 9th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Head to head. In 6 previous meetings, Avellino have taken 1 win to Padova's 3 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 4–6.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.7%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 45%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 6; Avellino 1 win, 2 draws, Padova 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.7 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
- Unavailable: Avellino 0, Padova 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Avellino: no absences. Padova will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Avellino vs Padova: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.76 |
| Market average | 2.16 | 3.16 | 3.45 |
| Lowest odds | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.32 | 70.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.09 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.71 | 54.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.91 | 3.64 | 25.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.81 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 11:23. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Avellino 1–1 Padova, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Avellino 5th (15 points), Padova 9th (14 points).
- H2H: 6 matches: Avellino 1W 2D 3L, goals 4–6.
- Absences: Avellino 0, Padova 0.
Who will win Avellino vs Padova?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Avellino vs Padova: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Avellino vs Padova: injuries and missing players
Avellino
- No reported absences
Padova
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 11 | 8-3-0 | 25:13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Ascoli | 11 | 5-5-1 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 | Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Avellino
Home and away
Avellino vs Padova: last matches of both teams
Avellino
Padova
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Avellino vs Padova?
Both teams to score (1.91); Avellino or draw (1X) (1.35).
Who will win Avellino vs Padova?
Our estimate gives Avellino a 43% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Padova 27%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 14:00, venue Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino. Referee: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Avellino: no absences. Padova: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.18) and under 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.74).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.91).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.7%), then 1–0 (12.1%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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