Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Vitória SC welcome Marítimo on 23 October 2026 · 20:45 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães), and the referee is D. Rosa. Vitória SC (63%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Vitória SC win by 2 or more. Stake back: Vitória SC win by 1. Loses: a draw, Vitória SC lose.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Vitória SC lie 13th, having collected 9 points after 10 matches (2W 3D 5L); Marítimo lie 14th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Vitória SC average 0.6 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 1.1 for and 1.8 against for Marítimo.
- Form in the competition. Vitória SC: 1W 2D 5L, goals 5–10; Marítimo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 9–14.
- Head to head. In 27 previous meetings, Vitória SC have taken 15 wins to Marítimo's 8 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 34–26.
What to expect
In our view Vitória SC hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (12.8%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.92), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 27; Vitória SC 15 wins, 4 draws, Marítimo 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Vitória SC 5–10, Marítimo 9–14.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 51%, top price 1.87). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Vitória SC: no absences. Marítimo will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.56 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.18 | 6.45 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 1.26 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.84 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.95 | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.05 | 30.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 48.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 23/10/26, 18:18. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Vitória SC 1–0 Marítimo, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Vitória SC 13th (9 points), Marítimo 14th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Vitória SC 1W 2D 5L (5:10), Marítimo 2W 2D 4L (9:14).
- H2H: 27 matches: Vitória SC 15W 4D 8L, goals 34–26.
- Absences: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: injuries and missing players
Vitória SC
- No reported absences
Marítimo
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Vitória SC
Home and away
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: last matches of both teams
Vitória SC
Marítimo
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Vitória SCDWLDLMarítimoLLLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Vitória SC -1 (Asian handicap) (2.02); Over 2.5 goals (1.92).
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Our estimate gives Vitória SC a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marítimo 15%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 23 October 2026 at 20:45, venue Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães. Referee: D. Rosa.
Who will be missing?
Vitória SC: no absences. Marítimo: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.92) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (12.8%), then 2–0 (12.1%) and 1–1 (10.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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