Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal (Premier League, 21 November 2026, 17:30): Newcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.56. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.47. The bookmakers' odds give Newcastle 18%, the draw 23% and Arsenal 59%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Wins: Newcastle win, a draw, Newcastle lose by 1. Loses: Newcastle lose by 2 or more.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Newcastle lie 13th, having collected 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L); Arsenal lie 1st, having collected 24 points (8W 0D 1L).
What to expect
In our view Arsenal hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–1 (11.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 55%, top price 1.77). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Newcastle: no absences. Arsenal will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.65 | 4.42 | 1.63 |
| Market average | 5.27 | 4.13 | 1.59 |
| Lowest odds | 4.84 | 3.77 | 1.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.74 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.16 | 44.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.75 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.73 | 53.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.01 | 46.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 05:23. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Arsenal 1st (24 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Newcastle vs Arsenal: injuries and missing players
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Arsenal
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Arsenal: last matches of both teams
Newcastle
Arsenal
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Newcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our estimate gives Newcastle a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arsenal 59%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 21 November 2026 at 17:30, venue St. James' Park, Newcastle.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Arsenal: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.77) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–1 (11.0%), then 0–2 (10.4%) and 1–1 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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