Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle welcome Aston Villa on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at St James' Park (Newcastle), and the referee is J. Gillett. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Aston Villa win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Aston Villa lose.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Newcastle lie 13th, having collected 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L); Aston Villa lie 10th, having collected 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 61%, top price 1.58). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.94 |
| Market average | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.35 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 13:52. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Aston Villa 10th (12 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: injuries and missing players
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: last matches of both teams
Newcastle
Aston Villa
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our estimate gives Newcastle a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 34%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 17:30, venue St James' Park, Newcastle. Referee: J. Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.58) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.0%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (8.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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