Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Arsenal preview and prediction
The key facts
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Liverpool 6th (15 points), Arsenal 1st (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 4W 3D 1L (11:8), Arsenal 7W 0D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 41 matches: Liverpool 15W 17D 9L, goals 78–56.
- Absences: Liverpool 6, Arsenal 5.
Forecast for the Liverpool versus Arsenal clash
We back the Liverpool‑Arsenal encounter to finish under 2.5 goals at 1.95. Arsenal have allowed only 6.2 expected goals and have dealt with 24 shots on target across their first eight Premier League fixtures. They have secured five clean sheets, whereas Liverpool have achieved four shut‑outs in six league outings since September.
The argument focuses on the present defensive capabilities of each team instead of the match’s typical goal‑rich history. Liverpool retain a distinct attacking edge thanks to Alexander Isak, who has found the net in each of his last six league games. Arsenal’s attacking line‑up is still in doubt as final fitness news is awaited. A quick opening goal or a red card could immediately shift the balance, making this a cautious choice rather than an outright certainty.
Selection: under 2.5 goals in regular play. Odds (decimal): 1.95.
The bet succeeds when the match finishes with 0‑2 goals and fails with 3 or more.
These odds correspond to a 51.28 % breakeven probability; no definitive statistical advantage is asserted.
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Liverpool against Arsenal – match day, kickoff hour and ground
On Sunday, 1 November 2026, Liverpool face Arsenal at Anfield, with the game set to begin at 16:30.
In this English top‑flight clash, Arsenal sit on 21 points after eight fixtures, whereas Liverpool have gathered 15 points from an equal tally of games. Their current standings are not the sole factor shaping the most appealing wagering option.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: last matches of both teams
Liverpool
Arsenal
Liverpool against Arsenal: odds and wagering options
- Liverpool win: 2.90
- Draw: 3.50
- Arsenal win: 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals: 1.86
- Under 2.5 goals: 1.95
- Arsenal or draw: 1.37
Arsenal feature the lowest odds, yet a cheap rate isn’t synonymous with a good bet. The model predicts a 41.8 % likelihood of an Arsenal victory, a 32.7 % chance for Liverpool and a 25.5 % possibility of a draw. With odds of 2.33, an Arsenal win would require about a 42.9 % success rate to be profitable, suggesting the price could be a bit inflated.
Additional options feature a 9.5‑corner total at 1.83, Liverpool corner line over 4.5 at 1.75 and under at 1.90, Arsenal over 4.5 at 1.70 and under at 1.95, a 4.5 card total over at 2.00 and under at 1.66, plus Isak to be caught offside more than 0.5 times at 1.95. Lacking precise matchup‑adjusted odds, these picks do not outweigh the appeal of the under‑2.5‑goal selection.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.90 | 3.48 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.79 | 3.37 | 2.53 |
| Lowest odds | 2.63 | 3.13 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.26 | 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.86 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.97 | 48.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.06 | 31.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 42.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 13:13. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Assessing Liverpool's and Arsenal's recent performance
In the last two Premier League fixtures, Liverpool secured triumphs over Brentford (2‑1 on the road) and Brighton (2‑0 at home). Following eight rounds, their tally stands at four victories, three stalemates and a single defeat.
Arsenal have secured victory in seven of their first eight league fixtures, the latest a 2‑0 success against Everton. Their recent League Cup knockout on penalties this week can be viewed as unrelated to their league form. The defensive statistics of each side form the key argument for an under‑2.5‑goal result.
Liverpool – Arsenal essential pre‑game figures
- Arsenal clean sheets: 5 in 8 league games
- Arsenal expected goals against: 6.2 in 8 matches
- Arsenal have conceded 24 shots on target over 8 games
- Liverpool clean sheets: 4 in 6 league matches since September
- Alexander Isak goals: 6 in his last 6 league appearances
These numbers reveal current patterns yet do not ensure future results. Given the limited data set and the differing strength of opponents, they function merely as supplementary information rather than conclusive proof.
Liverpool vs Arsenal head‑to‑head history
During the pair of league fixtures last campaign just one goal was netted – the winner from Dominik Szoboszlai in Liverpool’s home triumph. By contrast, the 19 league encounters spanning January 2016 to May 2025 each produced a minimum of two goals, with the contests averaging 4.1 goals per match.
Arsenal have failed to secure a victory in their previous 13 league visits to Anfield, recording five draws and eight losses. However, recent roster adjustments, strategic modifications, and present defensive performance ought to be the primary considerations for this forecast.
Head to head
All matchesLiverpool vs Arsenal: injuries and missing players
Liverpool
- C. Bradleyknee injury · will miss the match
- H. EkitikeAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- J. Frimpongmuscle injury · will miss the match
- G. Leoniknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Nalloabsence · will miss the match
- D. Szoboszlaimuscle injury · doubtful
Arsenal
- M. Dowmanred card · will miss the match
- B. Sakathigh injury · will miss the match
- W. Salibaback injury · will miss the match
- R. Calafioriabsence · doubtful
- C. Tzolishamstring injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Liverpool and Arsenal lineup updates plus standout performers
During the 30 October briefing, Arsenal’s manager highlighted Bukayo Saka’s steady progress while still awaiting complete recovery, and mentioned that Noni Madueke’s participation hinges on his training performance. He also indicated that Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Christos Tzolis are fit after training and may be selected, whereas Max Dowman’s request to overturn his red card was denied.
Recent news indicates that Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Muñoz may be back in Liverpool’s squad, and Florian Wirtz is now fit after an ankle injury.
Previous statements claiming they were certain to miss the match should be reassessed.
Isak’s scoring run makes him Liverpool’s most dangerous individual option at present. Arsenal’s defensive organisation is the strongest argument for the under‑2.5‑goals market. Confirmed line‑ups have not yet been released, so no predicted XI is presented as fact.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Liverpool
Home and away
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolLWWLWArsenalWWWWLMatch information
- Competition: Premier League
- Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
- Date: Sunday, 1 November 2026
- Kick‑off: 16:30
- Referee: Andrew Madley
Liverpool and Arsenal match outlook guide
Our forecast for the Liverpool‑Arsenal clash
Under 2.5 goals appears attractive at 1.95, we rate it with moderate confidence and acknowledge the absence of a quantifiable edge.
Consider placing a wager on Arsenal's victory
Although favored, the model assigns a 41.8 % chance of victory, which is below the 42.9 % breakeven mark for odds of 2.33, indicating scarce value.
Seeking a tougher player proposition?
Given the present data, none of the player‑specific markets provides a distinct edge; the current prop odds are not adequately supported by matchup analysis.
Factors that might alter the selection?
A significantly reduced odds, surprising offensive formations, or fresh health updates could lead to a revision of the pick.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Under 2.5 goals (1.95)
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our estimate gives Liverpool a 34% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Arsenal 38%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 16:30, venue Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: A. Madley.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.98) and under 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.2%), then 0–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (8.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.