Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Modena welcome Cesena on 24 October 2026 · 14:00 at Alberto Braglia (Modena), and the referee is Dario Madonia. Modena (61%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Modena vs Cesena: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Modena lie 3rd, having collected 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L); Cesena lie 12th, having collected 12 points (2W 6D 2L).
- Head to head. In 10 previous meetings, Modena have taken 4 wins to Cesena's 3 wins, plus 3 draws; the goal tally stands at 9–6.
What to expect
In our view Modena hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (10.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 53%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 56%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 10; Modena 4 wins, 3 draws, Cesena 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.5 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
- Unavailable: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 56%, top price 1.75). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Modena: no absences. Cesena will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Modena vs Cesena: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.57 | 4.34 | 6.15 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.17 | 5.70 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.19 | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.67 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.16 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.64 | 35.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.75 | 53.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.02 | 1.97 | 47.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 11:23. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Modena 2–0 Cesena, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Modena 3rd (20 points), Cesena 12th (12 points).
- H2H: 10 matches: Modena 4W 3D 3L, goals 9–6.
- Absences: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Modena vs Cesena: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Modena vs Cesena: injuries and missing players
Modena
- No reported absences
Cesena
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 11 | 8-3-0 | 25:13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Ascoli | 11 | 5-5-1 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 3 | Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Modena
Home and away
Modena vs Cesena: last matches of both teams
Modena
Cesena
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Modena vs Cesena?
Over 2.5 goals (1.75); Modena to win (1.57).
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
Our estimate gives Modena a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cesena 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 14:00, venue Alberto Braglia, Modena. Referee: Dario Madonia.
Who will be missing?
Modena: no absences. Cesena: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.75) and under 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.27).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.80).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (10.5%), then 1–0 (10.5%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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