Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Lens vs Toulouse (Ligue 1, 21 November 2026, 19:45): Lens -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.61. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.53. The bookmakers' odds give Lens 54%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 23%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Lens win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Lens lose.
Lens vs Toulouse: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lens lie 9th, having collected 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L); Toulouse lie 10th, having collected 13 points (3W 4D 3L).
What to expect
In our view Lens hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.53), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
- Unavailable: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, top price 1.68). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lens: no absences. Toulouse will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lens vs Toulouse: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.82 | 4.20 | 4.41 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 4.02 | 4.19 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 79.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.64 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.32 | 41.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.57 | 36.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.60 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 05:05. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Toulouse 10th (13 points).
- Absences: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lens vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Lens vs Toulouse: injuries and missing players
Lens
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lens
Home and away
Lens vs Toulouse: last matches of both teams
Lens
Toulouse
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.61); Under 3.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
Our estimate gives Lens a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 23%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 21 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
Who will be missing?
Lens: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.68) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.6%), then 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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