Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen welcome NEC Nijmegen on 31 October 2026 · 17:45 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen), and the referee is Sander van der Eijk. Heerenveen (45%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Heerenveen lie 7th, having collected 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L); NEC Nijmegen lie 14th, having collected 11 points (2W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Heerenveen average 1.8 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 1.7 for and 1.8 against for NEC Nijmegen.
- Form in the competition. Heerenveen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 18–13; NEC Nijmegen: 2W 5D 3L, goals 17–18.
- Head to head. In 23 previous meetings, Heerenveen have taken 6 wins to NEC Nijmegen's 8 wins, plus 9 draws; the goal tally stands at 28–34.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.90), which we give a 51% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 69%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 69%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 23; Heerenveen 6 wins, 9 draws, NEC Nijmegen 8 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Heerenveen 18–13, NEC Nijmegen 17–18.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
- Unavailable: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, top price 2.05). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Heerenveen: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen will be without: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.14 | 4.18 | 3.28 |
| Market average | 2.07 | 3.91 | 3.04 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.36 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.06 | 30.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.92 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.34 | 69.5% |
| BTTS – no | 3.25 | 3.05 | 30.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 13:04. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), NEC Nijmegen 14th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Heerenveen 4W 3D 3L (18:13), NEC Nijmegen 2W 5D 3L (17:18).
- H2H: 23 matches: Heerenveen 6W 9D 8L, goals 28–34.
- Absences: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: injuries and missing players
Heerenveen
- L. Smansnot in the squad · doubtful
NEC Nijmegen
- D. Geigernot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · will miss the match
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: last matches of both teams
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
HeerenveenWWWLWNEC NijmegenLDDDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Draw or NEC Nijmegen (X2) (1.80); Under 3.5 goals (1.90).
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our estimate gives Heerenveen a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and NEC Nijmegen 31%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 17:45, venue Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 69% (odds 1.43) and under 2.5 goals at 31% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.0%), then 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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