Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre), Auxerre take on Le Mans, with Willy Delajod in charge. We make Auxerre (45%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Auxerre lie 14th, having collected 10 points after 9 matches (3W 1D 5L); Le Mans lie 17th, having collected 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Auxerre average 1.6 goals for and 2.4 against, compared with 1.4 for and 2.1 against for Le Mans.
- Form in the competition. Auxerre: 3W 0D 4L, goals 11–17; Le Mans: 1W 3D 3L, goals 10–15.
- Head to head. In 6 previous meetings, Auxerre have taken 3 wins to Le Mans's 1 win, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 9–7.
What to expect
In our view Auxerre hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 56%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 6; Auxerre 3 wins, 2 draws, Le Mans 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Auxerre 11–17, Le Mans 10–15.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
- Unavailable: Auxerre 6, Le Mans 4.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 59%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Auxerre: A. Diousse, S. Fofana, R. Labeau Lascary, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe. Le Mans will be without: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas, Y. Larouci, H. Voyer. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.16 | 3.70 | 3.54 |
| Market average | 2.11 | 3.62 | 3.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.21 | 77.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.70 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.17 | 44.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.70 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Auxerre 14th (10 points), Le Mans 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Auxerre 3W 0D 4L (11:17), Le Mans 1W 3D 3L (10:15).
- H2H: 6 matches: Auxerre 3W 2D 1L, goals 9–7.
- Absences: Auxerre 6, Le Mans 4.
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Auxerre vs Le Mans: injuries and missing players
Auxerre
- A. Diousseknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Fofanagroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Labeau Lascaryinjury · will miss the match
- B. Okohknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Senayahamstring injury · will miss the match
- T. Siwemuscle injury · will miss the match
Le Mans
- A. Bourabaaankle injury · will miss the match
- E. Colasinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Laroucigroin injury · will miss the match
- H. Voyerthigh injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Auxerre
Home and away
Auxerre vs Le Mans: last matches of both teams
Auxerre
Le Mans
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AuxerreLDWLWLe MansLDLLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Over 2.5 goals (1.77); Auxerre to win (2.16).
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our estimate gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Le Mans 28%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:15, venue Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Referee: Willy Delajod.
Who will be missing?
Auxerre: A. Diousse, S. Fofana, R. Labeau Lascary, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe. Le Mans: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas, Y. Larouci, H. Voyer. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.77) and under 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.3%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.