Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–6. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sassuolo welcome Lazio on 27 October 2026 · 17:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia), and the referee is Luca Zufferli. Lazio (46%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Lazio win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Lazio lose.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sassuolo lie 17th, having collected 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L); Lazio lie 1st, having collected 28 points (9W 1D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sassuolo average 1.5 goals for and 2.0 against, compared with 2.0 for and 0.6 against for Lazio.
- Form in the competition. Sassuolo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 12–16; Lazio: 7W 1D 0L, goals 16–5.
- Head to head. In 26 previous meetings, Sassuolo have taken 6 wins to Lazio's 15 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 31–52.
What to expect
In our view Lazio hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 56%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 26; Sassuolo 6 wins, 5 draws, Lazio 15 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sassuolo 12–16, Lazio 16–5.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
- Unavailable: Sassuolo 5, Lazio 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 59%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sassuolo: D. Boloca, J. Idzes, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz. Lazio will be without: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella, A. Pinamonti. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.72 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.54 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.20 | 78.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.69 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.18 | 43.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.66 | 35.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.29 | 40.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 27/10/26, 16:21. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sassuolo 1–1 Lazio, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sassuolo 17th (8 points), Lazio 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Sassuolo 2W 2D 4L (12:16), Lazio 7W 1D 0L (16:5).
- H2H: 26 matches: Sassuolo 6W 5D 15L, goals 31–52.
- Absences: Sassuolo 5, Lazio 5.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sassuolo vs Lazio: injuries and missing players
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Idzesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Konebroken leg · will miss the match
- F. Leysenknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Pazknee injury · will miss the match
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
- A. Pinamontiillness · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sassuolo
Home and away
Sassuolo vs Lazio: last matches of both teams
Sassuolo
Lazio
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SassuoloLLLLDLazioWWWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Lazio -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our estimate gives Sassuolo a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lazio 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 27 October 2026 at 17:30, venue Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Referee: Luca Zufferli.
Who will be missing?
Sassuolo: D. Boloca, J. Idzes, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz. Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella, A. Pinamonti. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.74) and under 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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