Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Portsmouth welcome Swansea on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Fratton Park (Portsmouth), and the referee is Matthew Corlett. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Portsmouth win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Portsmouth lose.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Portsmouth lie 10th, having collected 22 points after 14 matches (6W 4D 4L); Swansea lie 5th, having collected 26 points (8W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Portsmouth average 1.2 goals for and 1.2 against, compared with 1.5 for and 1.0 against for Swansea.
- Form in the competition. Portsmouth: 5W 4D 4L, goals 16–15; Swansea: 8W 2D 3L, goals 20–13.
- Head to head. In 5 previous meetings, Portsmouth have taken 2 wins to Swansea's 2 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 10–6.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (13.0%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), which we give a 56% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 44%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 5; Portsmouth 2 wins, 1 draw, Swansea 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Portsmouth 16–15, Swansea 20–13.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
- Unavailable: Portsmouth 7, Swansea 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 51%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Portsmouth: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Swansea will be without: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio, M. Stamenic. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.05 | 3.32 | 2.52 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Lowest odds | 2.78 | 3.08 | 2.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.35 | 68.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.70 | 55.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.77 | 24.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Portsmouth 1–1 Swansea, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Portsmouth 10th (22 points), Swansea 5th (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Portsmouth 5W 4D 4L (16:15), Swansea 8W 2D 3L (20:13).
- H2H: 5 matches: Portsmouth 2W 1D 2L, goals 10–6.
- Absences: Portsmouth 7, Swansea 5.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Portsmouth vs Swansea: injuries and missing players
Portsmouth
- K. Andersonabsence · will miss the match
- B. Arthurback injury · will miss the match
- C. Bishopknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Brooke-Smithankle injury · will miss the match
- M. Kosznovszkynot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Ogilvieknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Swiftknee injury · will miss the match
Swansea
- C. BurgessAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Ronaldhamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. K. Yeoinjury · will miss the match
- S. Eustaquionot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Stamenicnot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Portsmouth
Home and away
Portsmouth vs Swansea: last matches of both teams
Portsmouth
Swansea
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
PortsmouthWDWDWSwanseaLWLLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Portsmouth +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 2.5 goals (1.76).
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our estimate gives Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Swansea 38%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 3 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Referee: Matthew Corlett.
Who will be missing?
Portsmouth: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio, M. Stamenic. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.20) and under 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.76).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.85).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (13.0%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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