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Serie A · Matchweek 12 · 23 November 2026 · 17:30

Monza vs Fiorentina: prediction, odds and betting tip – 23 November 2026, Serie A

LLLWL
VS
1Monza3.56
XDraw3.96
2Fiorentina2.10

Top price available · Updated 7/11/26, 04:55

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Our tip for Monza vs Fiorentina (Serie A, 23 November 2026, 17:30): Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.59. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.55. The bookmakers' odds give Monza 28%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 46%. The most likely score is 1–1.

Monza vs Fiorentina: tip and prediction
Main tip · Handicap
Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap)
1.59
Chance 63% · confidence medium

Wins: Fiorentina win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Fiorentina lose.

Second tip · Goals
Under 3.5 goals
1.55
Chance 62% · confidence medium
1–1likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Draw or Fiorentina (X2) at a probability of 72%, with odds of up to 1.36.
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Monza vs Fiorentina: our analysis

Why we chose this tip

  1. Table. Monza lie 18th, having collected 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L); Fiorentina lie 16th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).

What to expect

In our view Fiorentina hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.

On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.

The prediction at a glance

  1. Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
  2. Unavailable: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.

Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes

Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.53). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.

Absences

Unavailable for Monza: no absences. Fiorentina will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.

Monza vs Fiorentina: bookmaker odds side by side

Match result1X2
Top price available3.563.962.10
Market average3.323.702.05
Lowest odds2.993.311.99
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.211.1879.3%
Over 2.5 goals1.681.6458.8%
Under 2.5 goals2.392.3341.2%
Over 3.5 goals2.552.5037.8%
BTTS – yes1.531.5360.8%
BTTS – no2.402.3739.2%

Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 04:55. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.

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The key facts

  • Likely result: Monza 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
  • Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
  • Absences: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.

Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?

Monza28%
Draw26%
Fiorentina46%

We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.

Monza vs Fiorentina: more betting tips

Over 1.5 goals79.3% · fair odds 1.26 · best 1.21
Likely
Draw or Fiorentina (X2)71.5% · fair odds 1.40 · best 1.36
Likely
Under 3.5 goals62.2% · fair odds 1.61 · best 1.55
Likely
Both teams to score: yes60.8% · fair odds 1.64 · best 1.53
Likely
Over 2.5 goals58.8% · fair odds 1.70 · best 1.68
Possible
Fiorentina to win46.0% · fair odds 2.17 · best 2.10
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals41.2% · fair odds 2.43 · best 2.39
Outsider
Both teams to score: no39.2% · fair odds 2.55 · best 2.40
Outsider
Over 3.5 goals37.8% · fair odds 2.64 · best 2.55
Outsider
Monza to win28.5% · fair odds 3.51 · best 3.56
Outsider
Draw25.5% · fair odds 3.92 · best 3.96
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.

Correct score tips

1 : 111.0%
1 : 29.4%
0 : 18.5%
0 : 27.2%
2 : 17.2%
1 : 06.5%

Monza vs Fiorentina: injuries and missing players

Monza

  • No reported absences

Fiorentina

  • No reported absences

Team news can still change before the game.

Standings and form

#TeamPW-D-LGoalsPts
1Lazio109-1-024:828
2Inter108-1-126:1325
3AS Roma107-3-028:1024
4Como107-2-118:823
5AC Milan106-3-121:1221
6Frosinone106-2-224:1420
7Juventus105-2-313:1017
8Napoli104-2-417:1314
9Bologna104-2-414:1314
10Torino104-1-514:1613
11Genoa104-1-510:1413
12Cagliari104-1-59:1513
13Atalanta103-2-516:2011
14Lecce103-0-711:219
15Parma102-2-68:158
16Fiorentina102-2-615:238
17Sassuolo102-2-616:268
18Monza102-1-717:247
19Venezia112-0-98:216
20Udinese111-2-812:255

Recent matches

Monza

31 OctLBologna 2–1 Monza
28 OctLMonza 1–4 Napoli
23 OctLTorino 3–2 Monza
19 OctWMonza 4–0 Cagliari
11 OctLLazio 3–1 Monza

Fiorentina

2 NovWSassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina
29 OctDFiorentina 2–2 Atalanta
25 OctLInter 2–1 Fiorentina
18 OctLFiorentina 1–3 Como
10 OctLGenoa 2–1 Fiorentina

Home and away

Monza at home4 matches: 2W 0D 2L, goals 9–8
Fiorentina away5 matches: 2W 0D 3L, goals 10–12

Monza vs Fiorentina: last matches of both teams

Monza

L 31/10/26 · Bologna 2–1 Monza
L 28/10/26 · Monza 1–4 Napoli
L 23/10/26 · Torino 3–2 Monza
W 19/10/26 · Monza 4–0 Cagliari
L 11/10/26 · Lazio 3–1 Monza

Fiorentina

W 2/11/26 · Sassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina
D 29/10/26 · Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta
L 25/10/26 · Inter 2–1 Fiorentina
L 18/10/26 · Fiorentina 1–3 Como
L 10/10/26 · Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina

Returns calculator

Potential return0 £
Net profit0 £
Implied probability0%
Market margin6.1%

Questions and answers

Which tip do we give for Monza vs Fiorentina?

Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).

Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?

Our estimate gives Monza a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 46%.

What is the date, time and venue of the game?

Kick-off is on 23 November 2026 at 17:30, venue U-Power Stadium, Monza.

Who will be missing?

Monza: no absences. Fiorentina: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?

We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.68) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.39).

Will both teams score?

We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.53).

What correct score do we see as likeliest?

Top of our list is 1–1 (11.0%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (8.5%).

How do you put your predictions together?

Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.

More predictions

Cagliari vs Frosinone 7 NovTorino vs Lecce 7 NovParma vs Bologna 7 NovAS Roma vs Sassuolo 7 NovNapoli vs Lazio 8 Nov

18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.

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